%0 Journal Article
%J Climate Policy
%D 2022
%T The Value of Information About Geoengineering and the Two-Sided Cost of Bias
%A Anthony R. Harding
%A Mariia Belaia
%A David W. Keith
%X Solar geoengineering (SG) might be able to reduce climate risks if used to supplement emissions cuts and carbon removal. Yet, the wisdom of proceeding with research to reduce its uncertainties is disputed. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to estimate that the value of information that reduces uncertainty about SG efficacy. We find the value of reducing uncertainty by one-third by 2030 is around $4.5 trillion, most of which comes from reduced climate damages rather than reduced mitigation costs. Reducing uncertainty about SG efficacy is similar in value to reducing uncertainty about climate sensitivity. We analyse the cost of over-confidence about SG that causes too little emissions cuts and too much SG. Consistent with concerns about SG’s moral hazard problem, we find an over-confident bias is a serious and costly concern; but, we also find under-confidence that prematurely rules out SG can be roughly as costly. Biased judgments are costly in both directions. A coin has two sides. Our analysis quantitatively demonstrates the risk-risk trade-off around SG and reinforces the value of research that can reduce uncertainty.
%B Climate Policy
%P 1-11
%G eng
%U https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14693062.2022.2091509?needAccess=true
%0 Journal Article
%J Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
%D 2022
%T Developing a Plume-in-Grid Model for Plume Evolution in the Stratosphere
%A Hongwei Sun
%A Sebastian Eastham
%A David Keith
%X Stratospheric emissions from aircraft or rockets are important sources of chemical perturbations. Small-radius high-aspect-ratio plumes from stratospheric emissions are smaller than global Eulerian models' grid cells. To help global Eulerian models resolve subgrid plumes in the stratosphere, a Lagrangian plume model, comprising a Lagrangian trajectory model and an adaptive-grid plume model with a sequence of plume cross-section representations (from a highly resolved 2-D grid to a simplified 1-D grid based on a tradeoff between the accuracy and computational cost), is created and embedded into a global Eulerian (i.e., GEOS-Chem) model to establish a multiscale Plume-in-Grid (PiG) model. We compare this PiG model to the GEOS-Chem model based on a 1-month simulation of continuous inert tracer emissions by aircraft in the stratosphere. In the PiG results, the final injected tracer is more concentrated and approximately 1/3 of the tracer is at concentrations 2–4 orders of magnitude larger compared to the GEOS-Chem results. The entropy of injected tracer in the PiG results is 6% lower than the GEOS-Chem results, indicating less tracer mixing. The total product mass from a hypothetical second-order process (applied to the injected tracer) in the PiG results is 2 orders of magnitude larger than the GEOS-Chem results. Increasing the GEOS-Chem model's horizontal resolution 4-fold is insufficient to resolve this product difference, while requiring over seven times the computational resources of the PiG model. This paper describes the PiG model framework and parameterization of plume physical processes. Chemical and aerosol processes will be introduced in the future.
%B Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
%V 14
%G eng
%U https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021MS002816
%N 4
%0 Journal Article
%J Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
%D 2022
%T An interactive stratospheric aerosol model intercomparison of solar geoengineering by stratospheric injection of SO2 or accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosols
%A Debra Weisentein
%A Daniele Visioni
%A Henning Franke
%A Ulrike Niemeier
%A Sandro Vattioni
%A Garbiel Chiodo
%A Thomas Peter
%A David Keith
%X Studies of stratospheric solar geoengineering have tended to focus on modification of the sulfuric acid aerosol layer, and almost all climate model experiments that mechanistically increase the sulfuric acid aerosol burden assume injection of SO2. A key finding from these model studies is that the radiative forcing would increase sublinearly with increasing SO2 injection because most of the added sulfur increases the mass of existing particles, resulting in shorter aerosol residence times and aerosols that are above the optimal size for scattering. Injection of SO3 or H2SO4 from an aircraft in stratospheric flight is expected to produce particles predominantly in the accumulation-mode size range following microphysical processing within an expanding plume, and such injection may result in a smaller average stratospheric particle size, allowing a given injection of sulfur to produce more radiative forcing. We report the first multi-model intercomparison to evaluate this approach, which we label AM-H2SO4 injection. A coordinated multi-model experiment designed to represent this SO3- or H2SO4-driven geoengineering scenario was carried out with three interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models: the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) atmospheric configuration, the Max-Planck Institute’s middle atmosphere version of ECHAM5 with the HAM microphysical module (MAECHAM5-HAM) and ETH’s SOlar Climate Ozone Links with AER microphysics (SOCOL-AER) coordinated as a test-bed experiment within the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The intercomparison explores how the injection of new accumulation-mode particles changes the large-scale particle size distribution and thus the overall radiative and dynamical response to stratospheric sulfur injection. Each model used the same injection scenarios testing AM-H2SO4 and SO2 injections at 5 and 25 Tg(S) yr−1 to test linearity and climate response sensitivity. All three models find that AM-H2SO4 injection increases the radiative efficacy, defined as the radiative forcing per unit of sulfur injected, relative to SO2 injection. Increased radiative efficacy means that when compared to the use of SO2 to produce the same radiative forcing, AM-H2SO4 emissions would reduce side effects of sulfuric acid aerosol geoengineering that are proportional to mass burden. The model studies were carried out with two different idealized geographical distributions of injection mass representing deployment scenarios with different objectives, one designed to force mainly the midlatitudes by injecting into two grid points at 30◦ N and 30◦ S, and the other designed to maximize aerosol residence time by injecting uniformly in the region between 30◦ S and 30◦ N. Analysis of aerosol size distributions in the perturbed stratosphere of the models shows that particle sizes evolve differently in response to concentrated versus dispersed injections depending on the form of the injected sulfur (SO2 gas or AM-H2SO4 particulate) and suggests that prior model results for concentrated injection of SO2 may be strongly dependent on model resolution. Differences among models arise from differences in aerosol formulation and differences in model dynamics, factors whose interplay cannot be easily untangled by this intercomparison.
%B Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
%V 22
%P 2955-2973
%G eng
%U https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/2955/2022/
%N 5
%0 Journal Article
%J Science
%D 2021
%T Social science research to inform solar geoengineering: What are the benefits and drawbacks, and for whom?
%A Aldy, Joseph E.
%B Science
%V 374
%P 815-818
%G eng
%U https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj6517
%N 6569
%0 Journal Article
%J Science
%D 2021
%T Toward constructive disagreement about geoengineering: A shared taxonomy of concerns may help
%A David Keith
%B Science
%V 374
%P 812-815
%G eng
%U https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj1587
%N 6569
%0 Journal Article
%J Environmental Research Communications
%D 2021
%T Heat has larger impacts on labor in poorer areas
%A A. P. Behrer
%A R. J. Park
%A C. M. Golja
%A D. W. Keith
%A Wagner, G.
%X Hotter temperature can reduce labor productivity, work hours, and labor income. The effects of heat are likely to be a joint consequence of both exposure and vulnerability. Here we explore the impacts of heat on labor income in the US, using regional wealth as a proxy for vulnerability. We find that one additional day >32 °C (90 °F) lowers annual payroll by 0.04%, equal to 2.1% of average weekly earnings. Accounting for humidity results in slightly more precise estimates. Proxying for wealth with dividend payments we find smaller impacts of heat in counties with higher average wealth. Temperature projections for 2040–50 suggest that earnings impacts may be 95% smaller for US counties in the richest decile relative to the poorest. Considering the within country distribution of vulnerability, in addition to exposure, to climate change could substantially change estimated within-country differences between the rich and poor in income losses from climate change.
%B Environmental Research Communications
%V 3
%G eng
%U https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/abffa3/pdf
%N 095001
%0 Journal Article
%J Climate Change Economics
%D 2021
%T Optimal climate policy in 3D: mitigation, carbon removal, and solar geoengineering
%A Mariia Belaia
%A Juan Moreno-Cruz
%A David Keith
%X We introduce solar geoengineering (SG) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) into an integrated assessment model to analyze the trade-offs between mitigation, SG, and CDR. We propose a novel empirical parameterization of SG that disentangles its efficacy, calibrated with climate model results, from its direct impacts. We use a simple parameterization of CDR that decouples it from the scale of baseline emissions. We find that (a) SG optimally delays mitigation and lowers the use of CDR, which is distinct from moral hazard; (b) SG is deployed prior to CDR while CDR drives the phasing out of SG in the far future; (c) SG deployment in the short term is relatively independent of discounting and of the long-term trade-off between SG and CDR over time; (d) small amounts of SG sharply reduce the cost of meeting a 2°
C target and the costs of climate change, even with a conservative calibration for the efficacy of SG.
%B Climate Change Economics
%V 12
%P 2150008
%G eng
%U https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2010007821500081
%N 3
%0 Journal Article
%J EarthArXiv
%D 2021
%T Expert judgments on solar geoengineering research priorities and challenges
%A Peter Irvine
%A Elizabeth Burns
%A Ken Caldeira
%A Frank Keutsch
%A Dustin Tingley
%A David Keith
%X Solar geoengineering describes a set of proposals to deliberately alter the earth’s radiative balance to reduce climate risks. We elicit judgements on natural science research priorities for solar geoengineering through a survey and in-person discussion with 72 subject matter experts, including two thirds of all scientists with ≥10 publications on the topic. Experts prioritized Earth system response (33%) and impacts on society and ecosystems (27%) over the human and social dimensions (17%) and developing or improving solar geoengineering methods (15%), with most allocating no effort to weather control or counter-geoengineering. While almost all funding to date has focused on geophysical modeling and social sciences, our experts recommended substantial funding for observations (26%), perturbative field experiments (16%), laboratory research (11%) and engineering for deployment (11%). Of the specific proposals, stratospheric aerosols received the highest average priority (34%) then marine cloud brightening (17%) and cirrus cloud thinning (10%). The views of experts with ≥10 publications were generally consistent with experts with <10 publications, though when asked to choose the radiative forcing for their ideal climate scenario only 40% included solar geoengineering compared to 70% of experts with <10 publications. This suggests that those who have done more solar geoengineering research are less supportive of its use in climate policy. We summarize specific research recommendations and challenges that our experts identified, the most salient of which were fundamental uncertainties around key climate processes, novel challenges related to solar geoengineering as a design problem, and the challenges of public and policymaker engagement.
%B EarthArXiv
%G eng
%U https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/2307/
%0 Journal Article
%J Journal of Geophysical Research
%D 2021
%T Aerosol Dynamics in the Near Field of the SCoPEx Stratospheric Balloon Experiment
%A C. M. Golja
%A L. W. Chew
%A J. A. Dykema
%A D. W. Keith
%X Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) might alleviate some climate risks associated with accumulating greenhouse gases. Reduction of specific process uncertainties relevant to the distribution of aerosol in a turbulent stratospheric wake is necessary to support informed decisions about aircraft deployment of this technology. To predict aerosol size distributions we apply microphysical parameterizations of nucleation, condensation and coagulation to simulate an aerosol plume generated via injection of calcite powder or sulphate into a stratospheric wake with velocity and turbulence simulated by a three‐dimensional (3D) fluid dynamic calculation. We apply the model to predict the aerosol distribution that would be generated by a propeller wake in the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx). We find that injecting 0.1 g s‐1 calcite aerosol produces a nearly monodisperse plume and that at the same injection rate, condensable sulphate aerosol forms particles with average radii of 0.1 µm at 3 km downstream. We test the sensitivity of plume aerosol composition, size, and optical depth to the mass injection rate and injection location. Aerosol size distribution depends more strongly on injection rate than injection configuration. Comparing plume properties with specifications of a typical photometer, we find that plumes could be detected optically as the payload flies under the plume. These findings test the relevance of in situ sampling of aerosol properties by the SCoPEx outdoor experiment to enable quantitative tests of microphysics in a stratospheric plume. Our findings provide a basis for developing predictive models of SAI using aerosols formed in stratospheric aircraft wakes.
%B Journal of Geophysical Research
%G eng
%U https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD033438
%0 Journal Article
%J Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
%D 2021
%T Elicitation of US and Chinese expert judgments show consistent views on solar geoengineering
%A Zhen Dai
%A Burns, Elizabeth T.
%A Peter J. Irvine
%A Dustin H. Tingley
%A Jianhua Xu
%A David W. Keith
%K Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
%K peer reviewed
%K Public Policy
%K Solar Geoengineering
%X Expert judgments on solar geoengineering (SG) inform policy decisions and influence public opinions. We performed face-to-face interviews using formal expert elicitation methods with 13 US and 13 Chinese climate experts randomly selected from IPCC authors or supplemented by snowball sampling. We compare their judgments on climate change, SG research, governance, and deployment. In contrast to existing literature that often stress factors that might differentiate China from western democracies on SG, we found few significant differences between quantitative judgments of US and Chinese experts. US and Chinese experts differed on topics, such as desired climate scenario and the preferred venue for international regulation of SG, providing some insight into divergent judgments that might shape future negotiations about SG policy. We also gathered closed-form survey results from 19 experts with \textgreater10 publications on SG. Both expert groups supported greatly increased research, recommending SG research funding of \textasciitilde5% on average (10th–90th percentile range was 1–10%) of climate science budgets compared to actual budgets of \textless0.3% in 2018. Climate experts chose far less SG deployment in future climate policies than did SG experts.
%B Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
%V 8
%P 1–9
%G eng
%U https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00694-6
%N 1
%R 10.1057/s41599-020-00694-6
%0 Journal Article
%J Eos
%D 2021
%T Improving Models for Solar Climate Intervention Research
%A Sebastian Eastham
%A Sarah Doherty
%A David Keith
%A Jadwiga H. Richter
%A Lili Xia
%X
Solar climate intervention, also known as solar radiation modification, is an approach intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change by reducing the amount of solar energy that the Earth system traps. It sits alongside three other plausible responses to climate risk: emission cuts and decarbonization, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal, and adaptation to a changing climate.
Unlike the other approaches, solar climate intervention (SCI), which comprises various techniques, aims to modify Earth’s radiation budget—the amounts and balance of solar energy that Earth absorbs and reflects—directly. Implementing SCI means either decreasing inbound solar (shortwave) radiation by reflecting it back into space before it is absorbed or increasing the amount of outbound terrestrial (longwave) radiation.
Potential methods of SCI include stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), marine cloud brightening, cirrus cloud thinning, surface albedo modification, and space-based methods involving, for example, mirrors (Figure 1). At present, the potential efficacy and risks of implementing these approaches to reduce climate change are highly uncertain and likely depend on how they are implemented.
The Geoengineering Modeling Research Consortium (GMRC) was founded to coordinate SCI modeling research and to identify and resolve relevant issues with physical models, especially where existing climate research is unlikely to do so. Here we synthesize 2 years of GMRC meetings and research, and we offer specific recommendations for future model development.
%B Eos %G eng %U https://eos.org/science-updates/improving-models-for-solar-climate-intervention-research %0 Journal Article %J Nature Food %D 2021 %T Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields %A Fan, Yuanchao %A Tjiputra, Jerry %A Helene Muri %A Lombardozzi, Danica %A Park, Chang-Eui %A Wu, Shengjun %A David Keith %X Solar geoengineering (SG) and CO2 emissions reduction can each alleviate anthropogenic climate change, but their impacts on food security are not yet fully understood. Using an advanced crop model within an Earth system model, we analysed the yield responses of six major crops to three SG technologies (SGs) and emissions reduction when they provide roughly the same reduction in radiative forcing and assume the same land use. We found sharply distinct yield responses to changes in radiation, moisture and CO2, but comparable significant cooling benefits for crop yields by all four methods. Overall, global yields increase \textasciitilde10% under the three SGs and decrease 5% under emissions reduction, the latter primarily due to reduced CO2 fertilization, relative to business as usual by the late twenty-first century. Relative humidity dominates the hydrological effect on yields of rainfed crops, with little contribution from precipitation. The net insolation effect is negligible across all SGs, contrary to previous findings. %B Nature Food %V 2 %P 373–381 %G eng %U https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00278-w %N 5 %R 10.1038/s43016-021-00278-w %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Politics %D 2021 %T Solar geoengineering research on the U.S. policy agenda: when might its time come? %A Felgenhauer, Tyler %A Joshua Horton %A David Keith %K Academic peer-reviewed %K Public Policy %K Solar Geoengineering %X Solar geoengineering (SG) may be a helpful tool to reduce harms from climate change, yet further research into its potential benefits and risks must occur prior to any implementation. So far, however, organized research on SG has been absent from the U.S. national policy agenda. We apply the Multiple Streams Approach analytical framework to explain why a U.S. federal SG research program has failed to materialize up to now, and to consider how one might emerge in the future. We argue that establishing a federal program will require the formation of an advocacy coalition within the political arena that is prepared to support such a policy objective. A coalition favoring federal research on SG does not presently exist, yet the potential nucleus of a future political grouping is evident in the handful of ‘pragmatist’ environmental organizations that have expressed conditional support for expanded research. %B Environmental Politics %P 1–21 %G eng %U https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2021.1933763 %R 10.1080/09644016.2021.1933763 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Affairs: the Geopolitics of Climate Change, Policy Exchange %D 2021 %T The U.S. Can't Go It Alone on Solar Geoengineering %A David Keith %A Peter Irvine %B Environmental Affairs: the Geopolitics of Climate Change, Policy Exchange %G eng %U https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Environmental-Affairs-the-Geopolitcs-of-Climate-Change.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Geophysical Research Letters %D 2020 %T Designing a radiative antidote to CO2 %A Jacob T. Seeley %A Lutsko, Nicholas J. %A David W. Keith %X Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) reduces the CO2‐induced change to the mean global hydrological cycle disproportionately more than it reduces the CO2‐induced increase in mean surface temperature. Thus if SRM were used to offset all CO2‐induced mean warming, global‐mean precipitation would be less than in an unperturbed climate. Here we show that the mismatch between the mean hydrological effects of CO2 and SRM may partly be alleviated by spectrally tuning the SRM intervention (reducing insolation at some wavelengths more than others). By concentrating solar dimming at near‐infrared wavelengths, where H2O has strong absorption bands, the direct effect of CO2 on the tropospheric energy budget can be offset, which minimizes perturbations to the mean hydrological cycle. Idealized cloud‐resolving simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium confirm that spectrally‐tuned SRM can simultaneously maintain mean surface temperature and precipitation at their unperturbed values even as large quantities of CO2 are added to the atmosphere. %B Geophysical Research Letters %8 6 December 2020 %G eng %U https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL090876 %0 Book Section %B Securing our Economic Future %D 2020 %T Climate Policy Enters Four Dimensions %A David W. Keith %A John M. Deutch %B Securing our Economic Future %I Aspen Institute Press %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Communications Earth & Environment %D 2020 %T Experimental reaction rates constrain estimates of ozone response to calcium carbonate geoengineering %A Zhen Dai %A Debra K. Weisenstein %A Frank N. Keutsch %A David W. Keith %X Stratospheric solar geoengineering (SG) would impact ozone by heterogeneous chemistry. Evaluating these risks and methods to reduce them will require both laboratory and modeling work. Prior model-only work showed that CaCO3 particles would reduce, or even reverse ozone depletion. We reduce uncertainties in ozone response to CaCO3 via experimental determination of uptake coefficients and model evaluation. Specifically, we measure uptake coefficients of HCl and HNO3 on CaCO3 as well as HNO3 and ClONO2 on CaCl2 at stratospheric temperatures using a flow tube setup and a flask experiment that determines cumulative long-term uptake of HCl on CaCO3. We find that particle ageing causes significant decreases in uptake coefficients on CaCO3. We model ozone response incorporating the experimental uptake coefficients in the AER-2D model. With our new empirical reaction model, the global mean ozone column is reduced by up to 3%, whereas the previous work predicted up to 27% increase for the same SG scenario. This result is robust under our experimental uncertainty and many other assumptions. We outline systematic uncertainties that remain and provide three examples of experiments that might further reduce uncertainties of CaCO3 SG. Finally, we highlight the importance of the link between experiments and models in studies of SG. %B Communications Earth & Environment %V 1 %G eng %U https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00058-7 %N 63 %0 Journal Article %J Global Policy %D 2020 %T Parametric Insurance for Solar Geoengineering: Insights from the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative %A Joshua B. Horton %A Penehuro Lefale %A David Keith %X Solar geoengineering (SG) entails using technology to modify the Earth's radiative balance to offset some of the climate changes caused by long‐lived greenhouse gases. Parametric insurance, which delivers payouts when specific physical indices (such as wind speed) cross predefined thresholds, was recently proposed by two of us as a compensation mechanism for SG with the potential to ease disagreements about the technology and to facilitate cooperative deployment; we refer to this proposal as reduced‐rate climate risk insurance for solar geoengineering, or ‘RCG’. Here we probe the plausibility of RCG by exploring the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI), a sovereign risk pool providing parametric insurance coverage against tropical cyclones and earthquakes/tsunamis to Pacific island countries since 2013. Tracing the history of PCRAFI and considering regional views on insurance as compensation necessitates reconfiguring RCG in a way that shifts the focus away from bargaining between developed and developing countries toward bargaining among developed countries. This revised version of RCG is challenged by an assumption of broad developed country support for sovereign climate insurance in the developing world, but it also better reflects the underlying incentive structure and distribution of power. %B Global Policy %G eng %U https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12864 %N Special Issue %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Politics %D 2020 %T Steering and Influence in Transnational Climate Governance: Nonstate Engagement in Solar Geoengineering Research %A Joshua B. Horton %A Barbara Koremenos %X Theorists of transnational climate governance (TCG) seek to account for the increasing involvement of nonstate and substate actors in global climate policy. While transnational actors have been present in the emerging field of solar geoengineering—a novel technology intended to reflect a fraction of sunlight back to space to reduce climate impacts—many of their most significant activities, including knowledge dissemination, scientific capacity building, and conventional lobbying, are not captured by the TCG framework. Insofar as TCG is identified with transnational governance and transnational governance is important to reducing climate risks, an incomplete TCG framework is problematic for effective policy making. We attribute this shortcoming on the part of TCG to its exclusive focus on steering and corollary exclusion of influence as a critical component of governance. Exercising influence, for example, through inside and outside lobbying, is an important part of transnational governance—it complements direct governing with indirect efforts to inform, persuade, pressure, or otherwise influence both governor and governed. Based on an empirical analysis of solar geoengineering research governance and a theoretical consideration of alternative literatures, including research on interest groups and nonstate advocacy, we call for a broader theory of transnational governance that integrates steering and influence in a way that accounts for the full array of nonstate and substate engagements beyond the state. %B Global Environmental Politics %V 20 %P 93-111 %G eng %U https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00572 %N 3 %0 Journal Article %J Cell Reports Physical Science %D 2020 %T Can Industrial-Scale Solar Hydrogen Supplied from Commodity Technologies Be Cost Competitive by 2030? %A Dharik Sanchan Mallapragada %A Emre Gençer %A Patrick Insinger %A David Keith %A Francis Martin O’Sullivan %X Expanding decarbonization efforts beyond the power sector are contingent on cost-effective production of energy carriers, like H2, with near-zero life-cycle carbon emissions. Here, we assess the levelized cost of continuous H2 supply (95% availability) at industrial-scale quantities (100 tonnes/day) in 2030 from integrating commodity technologies for solar photovoltaics, electrolysis, and energy storage. Our approach relies on modeling the least-cost plant design and operation that optimize component sizes while adhering to hourly solar availability, production requirements, and component inter-temporal operating constraints. We apply the model to study H2 production costs spanning the continental United States and, through extensive sensitivity analysis, explore system configurations that can achieve $2.5/kg levelized costs or less for a range of plausible 2030 technology projections at high-irradiance locations. Notably, we identify potential sites and system configurations where PV-electrolytic H2 could substitute natural gas-derived H2 at avoided CO2 costs (%$120/ton), similar to the cost of deploying carbon capture and sequestration %B Cell Reports Physical Science %G eng %U https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-physical-science/fulltext/S2666-3864(20)30185-5#%20 %N 100174 %0 Journal Article %J Geophysical Research Letters %D 2020 %T Estimating Impacts and Trade‐offs in Solar Geoengineering Scenarios With a Moist Energy Balance Model %A Lutsko, Nicholas J. %A Seeley, Jacob T %A David W. Keith %X There are large uncertainties in the potential impacts of solar radiation modification (SRM) and in how these impacts depend on the way SRM is deployed. One open question concerns trade‐offs between latitudinal profiles of insolation reduction and climate response. Here, a moist energy balance model is used to evaluate several SRM proposals, providing fundamental insight into how the insolation reduction profile affects the climate response. The optimal SRM profile is found to depend on the intensity of the intervention, as the most effective profile for moderate SRM focuses the reduction at high latitudes, whereas the most effective profile for strong SRM is tropically amplified. The effectiveness of SRM is also shown to depend on when it is applied, an important factor to consider when designing SRM proposals. Using an energy balance model allows us to provide physical explanations for these results while also suggesting future avenues of research with comprehensive climate models. %B Geophysical Research Letters %V 47 %G eng %N 9 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2020 %T Halving warming with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering moderates policy-relevant climate hazards %A David Keith %A Peter Irvine %X Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is a proposal to artificially thicken the layer of reflective aerosols in the stratosphere and it is hoped that this may offer a means of reducing average climate changes. However, previous work has shown that it could not perfectly offset the effects of climate change and there is a concern that it may worsen climate impacts in some regions. One approach to evaluating this concern is to test whether the absolute magnitude of climate change at each location is significantly increased (exacerbated) or decreased (moderated)relative to the period just preceding deployment. In prior work it was found that halving warming with an idealized solar constant reduction would substantially reduce climate change overall, exacerbating change in a small fraction of places. Here, we test if this result holds for a more realistic representation of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering using the data from the geoengineering large ensemble (GLENS). Using a linearized scaling of GLENS we find that halving warming with stratospheric aerosols moderates important climate hazards in almost all regions. Only 1.3% of land area sees exacerbation of change in water availability, and regions that are exacerbated see wetting not drying contradicting the common assumption that solar geoengineering leads to drying in general. These results suggest that halving warming with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could potentially reduce key climate hazards substantially while avoiding some problems associated with fully offsetting warming. %B Environmental Research Letters %V 15 %G eng %U https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76de %N 4 %0 Journal Article %J Earth System Governance %D 2020 %T An earth system governance perspective on solar geoengineering %A Jesse L. Reynolds %A Joshua B. Horton %X Solar geoengineering appears capable of reducing climate change and the associated risks. In part because it would be global in effect, the governance of solar geoengineering is a central concern. The Earth System Governance (ESG) Project includes many researchers who, to varying degrees, utilize a common vocabulary and research framework. Despite the clear mutual relevance of solar geoengineering and ESG, few ESG researchers have considered the topic in substantial depth. To stimulate its sustained uptake as a subject within the ESG research program, we identify significant contributions thus far by ESG scholars on the subject of solar geoengineering governance and survey the wider solar geoengineering governance literature from the perspective of the new ESG research framework. Based on this analysis, we also suggest specific potential lines of inquiry that we believe are ripe for research by ESG scholars: nonstate actors’ roles, polycentricity, public engagement and participation, and the Anthropocene. %B Earth System Governance %V 3 %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Climate Policy %D 2019 %T Technical characteristics of a solar geoengineering deployment and implications for governance %A Douglas MacMartin %A Peter Irvine %A Ben Kravitz %A Joshua Horton %X Consideration of solar geoengineering as a potential response to climate change will demand complex decisions. These include not only the choice of whether to deploy solar engineering, but decisions regarding how to deploy, and ongoing decisionmaking throughout deployment. Research on the governance of solar geoengineering to date has primarily engaged only with the question of whether to deploy. We examine the science of solar geoengineering in order to clarify the technical dimensions of decisions about deployment – both strategic and operational – and how these might influence governance considerations, while consciously refraining from making specific recommendations. The focus here is on a hypothetical deployment rather than governance of the research itself. We first consider the complexity surrounding the design of a deployment scheme, in particular the complicated and difficult decision of what its objective(s) would be, given that different choices for how to deploy will lead to different climate outcomes. Next, we discuss the on-going decisions across multiple timescales, from the sub-annual to the multi-decadal. For example, feedback approaches might effectively manage some uncertainties, but would require frequent adjustments to the solar geoengineering deployment in response to observations. Other decisions would be tied to the inherently slow process of detection and attribution of climate effects in the presence of natural variability. Both of these present challenges to decision-making. These considerations point toward particular governance requirements, including an important role for technical experts – with all the challenges that entails. %B Climate Policy %V 19 %P 1325-1339 %G eng %U https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1668347 %N 10 %0 Journal Article %J Climate Policy %D 2019 %T Multilateral parametric climate risk insurance: a tool to facilitate agreement about deployment of solar geoengineering? %A David Keith %A Joshua Horton %X States will disagree about deployment of solar geoengineering, technologies that would reflect a small portion of incoming sunlight to reduce risks of climate change, and most disagreements will be grounded in conflicting interests. States that object to deployment will have many options to oppose it, so states favouring deployment will have a powerful incentive to meet their objections. Objections rooted in opposition to the anticipated unequal consequences of deployment may be met through compensation, yet climate policy is inhospitable to compensation via liability. We propose that multilateral parametric climate risk insurance might be a useful tool to facilitate agreement on solar geoengineering deployment. With parametric insurance, predetermined payouts are triggered when climate indices deviate from set ranges. We suggest that states favouring deployment could underwrite reduced-rate parametric climate insurance. This mechanism would be particularly suited to resolving disagreements based on divergent judgments about the outcomes of proposed implementation. This would be especially relevant in cases where disagreements are rooted in varying levels of trust in climate model predictions of solar geoengineering effectiveness and risks. Negotiations over the pricing and terms of a parametric risk pool would make divergent judgments explicit and quantitative. Reduced-rate insurance would provide a way for states that favour implementation to demonstrate their confidence in solar geoengineering by underwriting risk transfer and ensuring compensation without the need for attribution. This would offer a powerful incentive for states opposing implementation to moderate their opposition. %B Climate Policy %G eng %U https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2019.1607716 %0 Journal Article %J Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics %D 2019 %T Exploring accumulation-mode H2SO4 versus SO2 stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in a sectional aerosol–chemistry–climate model %A Sandro Vattioni %A Debra Weisenstein %A David Keith %A Aryeh Feinberg %A Thomas Peter %A Stenke, Andrea %B Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics %V 19 %G eng %U https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4877-2019 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Environmental Economics and Management %D 2019 %T Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation? %A Daniel Heyen %A Joshua Horton %A Juan Moreno-Cruz %X Solar geoengineering has received increasing attention as an option to temporarily stabilize global temperatures. A key concern is that heterogeneous preferences over the optimal amount of cooling combined with low deployment costs may allow the country with the strongest incentive for cooling, the so-called free-driver, to impose a substantial externality on the rest of the world. We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problemand tilt the game in favour of international cooperation. Our game-theoreticalmodel of countries with asymmetric preferences allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering.We find that countergeoengineering prevents the free-driver outcome, but not always with benign effects. The presence of counter-geoengineering leads to either a climate clash where countries engage in a non-cooperative escalation of opposing climate interventions (negative welfare effect), a moratorium treaty where countries commit to abstain from either type of climate intervention (indeterminate welfare effect), or cooperative deployment of solar geoengineering (positivewelfare effect).We show that the outcome depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry in temperature preferences between countries. %B Journal of Environmental Economics and Management %V 95 %P 153-177 %G eng %U https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069618305035?dgcid=coauthor %0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2019 %T Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards %A Peter Irvine %A Kerry Emanuel %A He, Jie %A Larry Horowitz %A Gabriel Vecchi %A David Keith %XSolar geoengineering (SG) has the potential to restore average surface temperatures by increasing planetary albedo, but this could reduce precipitation. Thus, although SG might reduce globally aggregated risks, it may increase climate risks for some regions. Here, using the high-resolution forecast-oriented low ocean resolution (HiFLOR) model—which resolves tropical cyclones and has an improved representation of present-day precipitation extremes—alongside 12 models from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), we analyse the fraction of locations that see their local climate change exacerbated or moderated by SG. Rather than restoring temperatures, we assume that SG is applied to halve the warming produced by doubling CO2 (half-SG). In HiFLOR, half-SG offsets most of the CO2-induced increase of simulated tropical cyclone intensity. Moreover, none of temperature, water availability, extreme temperature or extreme precipitation are exacerbated under half-SG when averaged over any Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Extremes (SREX) region. Indeed, for both extreme precipitation and water availability, less than 0.4% of the ice-free land surface sees exacerbation. Thus, while concerns about the inequality of solar geoengineering impacts are appropriate, the quantitative extent of inequality may be overstated.
[[{"fid":1012914,"view_mode":"default","type":"media","attributes":{"height":"315","width":"560","class":"wysiwyg-placeholder media-element file-default"}}]]
%B Nature Climate Change %G eng %U https://rdcu.be/bqpz9 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Global Ethics %D 2019 %T The potential for climate engineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to reduce climate injustice %A Toby Svoboda %A Peter Irvine %A Daniel Callies %A Masahiro Sugiyama %B Journal of Global Ethics %G eng %U https://doi.org/10.1080/17449626.2018.1552180 %0 Journal Article %J Joule %D 2018 %T Climatic Impacts of Wind Power %A Lee Miller %A David Keith %XWe find that generating today’s US electricity demand (0.5 TWe) with wind power would warm Continental US surface temperatures by 0.24C. Warming arises, in part, from turbines redistributing heat by mixing the boundary layer. Modeled diurnal and seasonal temperature differences are roughly consistent with recent observations of warming at wind farms, reflecting a coherent mechanistic understanding for how wind turbines alter climate. The warming effect is: small compared with projections of 21st century warming, approximately equivalent to the reduced warming achieved by decarbonizing global electricity generation, and large compared with the reduced warming achieved by decarbonizing US electricity with wind. For the same generation rate, the climatic impacts from solar photovoltaic systems are about ten times smaller than wind systems. Wind’s overall environmental impacts are surely less than fossil energy. Yet, as the energy system is decarbonized, decisions between wind and solar should be informed by estimates of their climate impacts.
[[{"fid":"997588","view_mode":"default","type":"media","attributes":{"height":"360","width":"640","class":"wysiwyg-placeholder media-element file-default"}}]]
%B Joule %V 2 %G eng %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.09.009 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2018 %T Observation-based solar and wind power capacity factors and powerdensities %A Lee Miller %A David Keith %XPower density is the rate of energy generation per unit of land surface area occupied by an energy system. The power density of low-carbon energy sources will play an important role in mediating the environmental consequences of energy system decarbonization as the world transitions away from high power-density fossil fuels. All else equal, lower power densities mean larger land and environmental footprints. The power density of solar and wind power remain surprisingly uncertain: estimates of realizable generation rates per unit area for wind and solar power span 0.3–47Wem−2 and 10–120Wem−2 respectively. We refine this range using US data from 1990–2016. We estimate wind power density from primary data, and solar power density from primary plant-level data and prior datasets on capacity density. The mean power density of 411 onshore wind power plants in 2016 was 0.50Wem−2. Wind plants with the largest areas have the lowest power densities. Wind power capacity factors are increasing, but that increase is associated with a decrease in capacity densities, so power densities are stable or declining. If wind power expands away from the best locations and the areas of wind power plants keep increasing, it seems likely that wind’s power density will decrease as total wind generation increases. The mean 2016 power density of 1150 solar power plants was 5.4Wem−2. Solar capacity factors and (likely) power densities are increasing with time driven, in part, by improved panel efficiencies. Wind power has a 10-fold lower power density than solar, but wind power installations directly occupy much less of the land within their boundaries. The environmental and social consequences of these divergent land occupancy patterns need further study.
[[{"fid":997586,"view_mode":"default","type":"media","attributes":{"height":"360","width":"640","class":"wysiwyg-placeholder media-element file-default"}}]]
%B Environmental Research Letters %V 13 %G eng %U http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae102 %0 Journal Article %J The Cryosphere %D 2018 %T Brief communication: Understanding solar geoengineering's potential to limit sea level rise requires attention from cryosphere experts %A Peter J. Irvine %A David W. Keith %A John Moore %X Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, a form of solar geoengineering, is a proposal to add a reflective layer of aerosol to the stratosphere to reduce net radiative forcing and so to reduce the risks of climate change. The efficacy of solar geoengineering at reducing changes to the cryosphere is uncertain; solar geoengineering could reduce temperatures and so slow melt, but its ability to reverse ice sheet collapse once initiated may be limited. Here we review the literature on solar geoengineering and the cryosphere and identify the key uncertainties that research could address. Solar geoengineering may be more effective at reducing surface melt than a reduction in greenhouse forcing that produces the same global-average temperature response. Studies of natural analogues and model simulations support this conclusion. However, changes below the surfaces of the ocean and ice sheets may strongly limit the potential of solar geoengineering to reduce the retreat of marine glaciers. High-quality process model studies may illuminate these issues. Solar geoengineering is a contentious emerging issue in climate policy and it is critical that the potential, limits, and risks of these proposals are made clear for policy makers. %B The Cryosphere %V 12 %P 2501-2513 %G eng %U https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/2501/2018/tc-12-2501-2018.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Economics Letters %D 2018 %T Potentially large equilibrium climate sensitivity tail uncertainty %A Gernot Wagner %A Martin L. Weitzman %X Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the link between concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and eventual global average temperatures, has been persistently and perhaps deeply uncertain. Its ‘likely’ range has been approximately between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Centigrade for almost 40 years (Wagner and Weitzman, 2015). Moreover, Roe and Baker (2007), Weitzman (2009), and others have argued that its right-hand tail may be long, ‘fat’ even. Enter Cox et al. (2018), who use an ’emergent constraint’ approach to characterize the probability distribution of ECS as having a central or best estimate of 2.8℃ with a 66% confidence interval of 2.2-3.4℃. This implies, by their calculations, that the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5℃ is less than 1%. They characterize such kind of result as “renewing hope that we may yet be able to avoid global warming exceeding 2[℃]”. We share the desire for less uncertainty around ECS (Weitzman, 2011; Wagner and Weitzman, 2015). However, we are afraid that the upper-tail emergent constraint on ECS is largely a function of the assumed normal error terms in the regression analysis. We do not attempt to evaluate Cox et al. (2018)’s physical modeling (aside from the normality assumption), leaving that task to physical scientists. We take Cox et al. (2018)’s 66% confidence interval as given and explore the implications of applying alternative probability distributions. We find, for example, that moving from a normal to a log-normal distribution, while giving identical probabilities for being in the 2.2-3.4℃ range, increases the probability of exceeding 4.5℃ by over five times. Using instead a fat-tailed Pareto distribution, an admittedly extreme case, increases the probability by over forty times. %B Economics Letters %V 168 %P 144-6 %G eng %U https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176518301733 %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Politics %D 2018 %T Solar Geoengineering and Democracy %A Joshua B. Horton %A Jesse L. Reynolds %A Holly Jean Buck %A Daniel Callies %A Stefan Schäfer %A David W. Keith %A Steve Rayner %X Some scientists suggest that it might be possible to reflect a portion of incoming sunlight back into space to reduce climate change and its impacts. Others argue that such solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering is inherently incompatible with democracy. In this article, we reject this incompatibility argument. First, we counterargue that technologies such as SRM lack innate political characteristics and predetermined social effects, and that democracy need not be deliberative to serve as a standard for governance. We then rebut each of the argument’s core claims, countering that (1) democratic institutions are sufficiently resilient to manage SRM, (2) opting out of governance decisions is not a fundamental democratic right, (3) SRM may not require an undue degree of technocracy, and (4) its implementation may not concentrate power and promote authoritarianism. Although we reject the incompatibility argument, we do not argue that SRM is necessarily, or even likely to be, democratic in practice. %B Global Environmental Politics %P 5-24 %G eng %U https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/glep_a_00466#authorsTabList %0 Journal Article %J Joule %D 2018 %T A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere %A David W. Keith %A Geoffrey Holmes %A David St. Angelo %A Kenton Heidel %X Context & Scale
An industrial process for large-scale capture of atmospheric CO2 (DAC) serves two roles. First, as a source of CO2 for making carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels, enabling carbon-free energy to be converted into high-energy-density fuels. Solar fuels, for example, may be produced at high-insolation low-cost locations from DAC-CO2 and electrolytic hydrogen using gas-to-liquids technology enabling decarbonization of difficult-to-electrify sectors such as aviation. And second, DAC with CO2 sequestration allows carbon removal.
The feasibility of DAC has been disputed, in part, because publications have not provided sufficient engineering detail to allow independent evaluation of costs. We provide an engineering cost basis for a commercial DAC system for which all major components are either drawn from well-established commercial heritage or described in sufficient detail to allow assessment by third parties. This design reflects roughly 100 person-years of development by Carbon Engineering.
Summary
We describe a process for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere in an industrial plant. The design captures ∼1 Mt-CO2/year in a continuous process using an aqueous KOH sorbent coupled to a calcium caustic recovery loop. We describe the design rationale, summarize performance of the major unit operations, and provide a capital cost breakdown developed with an independent consulting engineering firm. We report results from a pilot plant that provides data on performance of the major unit operations. We summarize the energy and material balance computed using an Aspen process simulation. When CO2 is delivered at 15 MPa, the design requires either 8.81 GJ of natural gas, or 5.25 GJ of gas and 366 kWhr of electricity, per ton of CO2 captured. Depending on financial assumptions, energy costs, and the specific choice of inputs and outputs, the levelized cost per ton CO2 captured from the atmosphere ranges from 94 to 232 $/t-CO2.
Interstate compensation for climate change based on legal liability faces serious obstacles. Structural incongruities related to causation, time, scope, and scale impede application of tort law to climate change, while political opposition from developed countries prevents intergovernmental consideration of liability as a means of compensating for climate damages. Insurance, however, in particular parametric insurance triggered by objective environmental indices, is emerging as a promising alternative to liability. This is manifest in the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, which ruled out recourse to legal liability, and in the formation and expansion of regional sovereign climate risk insurance schemes in the Caribbean, Africa, and the Pacific. Theory and early practice suggest that parametric insurance exhibits five key advantages compared to legal liability in the climate change context: (1) it does not require that causation be demonstrated; (2) it has evolved to provide catastrophic coverage; (3) it is oriented toward the future rather than the past; (4) it is contractual, rather than adversarial, in nature; and (5) it provides a high degree of predictability. Compensation based on parametric insurance represents a novel climate policy option with significant potential to advance climate politics.
%B Carbon & Climate Law Review %V 12 %P 285-296 %G eng %U https://cclr.lexxion.eu/article/CCLR/2018/4/4 %N 4 %0 Journal Article %J Climate Policy %D 2017 %T Underwriting 1.5°C: competitive approaches to financing accelerated climate change mitigation %A Paul Bodnar %A Caroline Ott %A Rupert Edwards %A Stephan Hoch %A Emily F. McGlynn %A Gernot Wagner %XDelivering emission reductions consistent with a 1.5°C trajectory will require innovative public financial instruments designed to mobilize trillions of dollars of low-carbon private investment. Traditional public subsidy instruments such as grants and concessional loans, while critical to supporting nascent technologies or high-capital-cost projects, do not provide the price signals required to shift private investments towards low-carbon alternatives at a scale. Programmes that underwrite the value of emission reductions using auctioned price floors provide price certainty over long time horizons, thus improving the cost-effectiveness of limited public funds while also catalysing private investment.
Taking lessons from the World Bank’s Pilot Auction Facility, which supports methane and nitrous oxide mitigation projects, and the United Kingdom’s Contracts for Difference programme, which supports renewable energy deployment, we show that auctioned price floors can be applied to a variety of sectors with greater efficiency and scalability than traditional subsidy instruments. We explore how this new class of instrument can enhance the cost-effectiveness of carbon pricing and complementary policies needed to achieve a 1.5°C outcome, including through large-scale adoption by the Green Climate Fund and other international and domestic climate finance vehicles.
Key policy insights
Solar geoengineering is no substitute for cutting emissions, but could nevertheless help reduce the atmospheric carbon burden. In the extreme, if solar geoengineering were used to hold radiative forcing constant under RCP8.5, the carbon burden may be reduced by ~100 GTC, equivalent to 12–26% of twenty-first-century emissions at a cost of under US$0.5 per tCO2.
%B Nature Climate Change %V 7 %P 617–619 %G eng %U https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3376.epdf?author_access_token=LJ7xrnEo6oZoRNRYgu7btNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NZqUjovChb9EdabCEcR6GuvZkepQXaPwfxVdn3_EQ1onk9bPWOsX7ETCUW7OvjKbM7syCkanNFs4sG07XAXjcx %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2017 %T The Asia-Pacific’s role in the emerging solar geoengineering debate %A Masahiro Sugiyama %A Shinichiro Asayama %A Atsushi Ishii %A Takanobu Kosugi %A John C. Moore %A Jolene Lin %A Penehuro F. Lefale %A Wil Burns %A Masatomo Fujiwara %A Arunabha Ghosh %A Joshua Horton %A Atsushi Kurosawa %A Andy Parker %A Michael Thompson %A Pak-Hang Wong %A Lili Xia %X Increasing interest in climate engineering in recent years has led to calls by the international research community for international research collaboration as well as global public engagement. But making such collaboration a reality is challenging. Here, we report the summary of a 2016 workshop on the significance and challenges of international collaboration on climate engineering research with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region. Because of the region’s interest in benefits and risks of climate engineering, there is a potential synergy between impact research on anthropogenic global warming and that on solar radiation management. Local researchers in the region can help make progress toward better understanding of impacts of solar radiation management. These activities can be guided by an ad hoc Asia-Pacific working group on climate engineering, a voluntary expert network. The working group can foster regional conversations in a sustained manner while contributing to capacity building. An important theme in the regional conversation is to develop effective practices of dialogues in light of local backgrounds such as cultural traditions and past experiences of large-scale technology development. Our recommendation merely portrays one of several possible ways forward, and it is our hope to stimulate the debate in the region. %B Climatic Change %G eng %U https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-017-1994-0 %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2017 %T Unmask temporal trade-offs in climate policy debates %A Ilissa B. Ocko %A Steven P. Hamburg %A Daniel J. Jacob %A David W. Keith %A Nathaniel O. Keohane %A Michael Oppenheimer %A Joseph D. Roy-Mayhew %A Daniel P. Schrag %A Stephen W. Pacala %XGlobal warming potentials (GWPs) have become an essential element of climate policy and are built into legal structures that regulate greenhouse gas emissions. This is in spite of a well-known shortcoming: GWP hides trade-offs between short- and long-term policy objectives inside a single time scale of 100 or 20 years (1). The most common form, GWP100, focuses on the climate impact of a pulse emission over 100 years, diluting near-term effects and misleadingly implying that short-lived climate pollutants exert forcings in the long-term, long after they are removed from the atmosphere (2). Meanwhile, GWP20 ignores climate effects after 20 years. We propose that these time scales be ubiquitously reported as an inseparable pair, much like systolic-diastolic blood pressure and city-highway vehicle fuel economy, to make the climate effect of using one or the other time scale explicit. Policy-makers often treat a GWP as a value-neutral measure, but the time-scale choice is central to achieving specific objectives (2–4).
%B Science %V 356 %P 492-493 %G eng %U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6337/492 %N 6337 %0 Report %D 2017 %T Climate change, negative emissions and solar radiation management: It is time for an open societal conversation %A Matthias Honegger %A Munch, Steffen %A Hirsch, Annette %A Beuttler, Christoph %A Thomas Peter %A Wil Burns %A Genden, Oliver %A Goeschl, Timo %A Gregorowius, Daniel %A David Keith %A Lederer, Markus %A Michaelowa, Axel %A Pasztor, Janos %A Schafer, Stefan %A Seneviratne, Sonia %A Stenke, Andrea %A Patt, Anthony %A Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo %B Risk-Dialogue Foundation St.Gallen for the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Issues in Science and Technology %D 2017 %T Toward a Responsible Solar Geoengineering Research Program %A David Keith %B Issues in Science and Technology %V 33 %G eng %U http://issues.org/33-3/toward-a-responsible-solar-geoengineering-research-program/ %N 3 %0 Journal Article %J PLoS ONE %D 2017 %T Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends %A Jeremy Proville %A Daniel Zavala-Araiza %A Gernot Wagner %X We use a parallelized spatial analytics platform to process the twenty-one year totality of the longest-running time series of night-time lights data—the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) dataset—surpassing the narrower scope of prior studies to assess changes in area lit of countries globally. Doing so allows a retrospective look at the global, long-term relationships between night-time lights and a series of socio-economic indicators. We find the strongest correlations with electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and GDP, followed by population, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, poverty (inverse) and F-gas emissions. Relating area lit to electricity consumption shows that while a basic linear model provides a good statistical fit, regional and temporal trends are found to have a significant impact. %B PLoS ONE %V 12 %G eng %U http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174610&type=printable %N 3 %0 Journal Article %J Earth's Future %D 2017 %T Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering %A Peter J. Irvine %A Ben Kravitz %A Mark G. Lawrence %A Dieter Gerten %A Cyril Caminade %A Simon N.Gosling %A Erica J. Hendy %A Belay T. Kassie %A W. Daniel Kissling %A Helene Muri %A Andreas Oschlies %A Steven J. Smith %XDespite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering—proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo—there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current stateof knowledge about impacts of a solar-geoengineered climate and identify the major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can be built upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solargeoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solargeoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by solar geoengineering.
%B Earth's Future %V 5 %P 93–106 %G eng %U http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000389/epdf %0 Journal Article %J Earth's Future %D 2016 %T Five solar geoengineering tropes that have outstayed their welcome %A Jesse L. Reynolds %A Andy Parker %A Peter Irvine %XIn the last decade, solar geoengineering (solar radiation management, or SRM) has receivedincreasing consideration as a potential means to reduce risks of anthropogenic climate change. Some ideas regarding SRM that have been proposed have receded after being appropriately scrutinized, while others have strengthened through testing and critique. This process has improved the understanding ofSRM’s potential and limitations. However, several claims are frequently made in the academic and popular SRM discourses and, despite evidence to the contrary, pose the risk of hardening into accepted facts. Here, in order to foster a more productive and honest debate, we identify, describe, and refute five of the most problematic claims that are unsupported by existing evidence, unlikely to occur, or greatly exaggerated. These are: (A) once started, SRM cannot be stopped; (B) SRM is a right-wing project; (C) SRM wouldcost only a few billion dollars per year; (D) modeling studies indicate that SRM would disrupt monsoonprecipitation; and (E) there is an international prohibition on outdoors research. SRM is a controversial proposed set of technologies that could prove to be very helpful or very harmful, and it warrants vigorous and informed public debate. By highlighting and debunking some persistent but unsupported claims, this paper hopes to bring rigor to such discussions.
%B Earth's Future %V 4 %P 562–568 %G eng %U http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000416/epdf %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %D 2016 %T Stratospheric Solar Geoengineering without Ozone Loss %A David Keith %A Debra Weisenstein %A John Dykema %A Frank Keutsch %XInjecting sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere, the most frequently analyzed proposal for solar geoengineering, may reduce some climate risks, but it would also entail new risks, including ozone loss and heating of the lower tropical stratosphere, which, in turn, would increase water vapor concentration causing additional ozone loss and surface warming. We propose a method for stratospheric aerosol climate modification that uses a solid aerosol composed of alkaline metal salts that will convert hydrogen halides and nitric and sulfuric acids into stable salts to enable stratospheric geoengineering while reducing or reversing ozone depletion. Rather than minimizing reactive effects by reducing surface area using high refractive index materials, this method tailors the chemical reactivity. Specifically, we calculate that injection of calcite (CaCO3) aerosol particles might reduce net radiative forcing while simultaneously increasing column ozone toward its preanthropogenic baseline. A radiative forcing of −1 W⋅m−2, for example, might be achieved with a simultaneous 3.8% increase in column ozone using 2.1 Tg⋅y−1 of 275-nm radius calcite aerosol. Moreover, the radiative heating of the lower stratosphere would be roughly 10-fold less than if that same radiative forcing had been produced using sulfate aerosol. Although solar geoengineering cannot substitute for emissions cuts, it may supplement them by reducing some of the risks of climate change. Further research on this and similar methods could lead to reductions in risks and improved efficacy of solar geoengineering methods.
%B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %G eng %U http://www.pnas.org/content/113/52/14910.full %0 Journal Article %J Earth's Future %D 2016 %T Solar geoengineering could substantially reduce climate risks — A research hypothesis for the next decade %A David W. Keith %A Peter J. Irvine %XWe offer a hypothesis that if solar geoengineering (SG) were deployed to offset half of the increase in global-mean temperature from the date of deployment using a technology and deployment method chosen to approximate a reduction in the solar constant then, over the 21st century, it would (a) substantially reduce the global aggregate risks of climate change, (b) without making any country worse off, and (c) with the aggregate risks from side-effects being small in comparison to the reduction in climate risks. We do not set out to demonstrate this hypothesis; rather we propose it with the goal of stimulating a strategic engagement of the SG research community with policy-relevant questions. We elaborate seven sub-hypotheses on the effects of our scenario for key risks of climate change that could be assessed in future modeling work. As an example, we provide a defence of one of our sub-hypotheses, that our scenario of SG would reduce the risk of drought in dry regions, but also identify issues that may undermine this sub-hypothesis and how future work could resolve this question. SG cannot substitute for emissions mitigation but it may be a useful supplement. It is our hope that scientific and technical research over the next decade focuses more closely on well-articulated variants of the key policy-relevant question: could SG be designed and deployed in such a way that it could substantially and equitably reduce climate risks?
%B Earth's Future %V 4 %P 549–559 %G eng %U http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000465/epdf %0 Journal Article %J Earth's Future %D 2016 %T What do people think when they think about solar geoengineering? A review of empirical social science literature, and prospects for future research %A Burns, Elizabeth T. %A Jane A. Flegal %A David W. Keith %A Aseem Mahajan %A Dustin Tingley %A Gernot Wagner %XPublic views and values about solar geoengineering should be incorporated in science-policy decisions, if decision makers want to act in the public interest. In reflecting on the past decade of research, we review around 30 studies investigating public familiarity with, and views about, solar geoengineering. A number of recurring patterns emerge: (1) general unfamiliarity with geoengineering among publics; (2) the importance of artifice versus naturalness; (3) some conditional support for certain kinds of research; and (4) nuanced findings on the “moral hazard” and “reverse moral hazard” hypotheses, with empirical support for each appearing under different circumstances and populations. We argue that in the coming decade, empirical social science research on solar geoengineering will be crucial, and should be integrated with physical scientific research.
%B Earth's Future %G eng %U http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000461/full %0 Journal Article %J Geophysical Research Letters %D 2016 %T Improved aerosol radiative properties as a foundation for solar geoengineering risk assessment %A John Dykema %A David Keith %A Frank Keutsch %XSide effects resulting from the deliberate injection of sulfate aerosols intended to partially offset climate change have motivated the investigation of alternatives, including solid aerosol materials. Sulfate aerosols warm the tropical tropopause layer, increasing the flux of water vapor into the stratosphere, accelerating ozone loss, and increasing radiative forcing. The high refractive index of some solid materials may lead to reduction in these risks. We present a new analysis of the scattering efficiency and absorption of a range of candidate solid aerosols. We utilize a comprehensive radiative transfer model driven by updated, physically consistent estimates of optical properties. We compute the potential increase in stratospheric water vapor and associated longwave radiative forcing. We find that the stratospheric heating calculated in this analysis indicates some materials to be substantially riskier than previous work. We also find that there are Earth-abundant materials that may reduce some principal known risks relative to sulfate aerosols.
%B Geophysical Research Letters %G eng %U http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069258/full %0 Web Page %D 2016 %T Establishing practical estimates for city-integrated solar PV and wind %A Lee Miller %A Vaclav Smil %A Gernot Wagner %A David Keith %B Science eLetter %G eng %U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6288/922.e-letters %0 Journal Article %J Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change %D 2016 %T An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering %A Pete Irvine %A Ben Kravitz %A Mark Lawrence %A Helene Muri %XSolar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to cool the Earth by increasing the reflection of sunlight back to space, for example, by injecting reflective aerosol particles (or their precursors) into the lower stratosphere. Such proposed techniques would not be able to substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a response to the risks of climate change, as they would only mask some of the effects of global warming. They might, however, eventually be applied as a complementary approach to reduce climate risks. Thus, the Earth system consequences of solar geoengineering are central to understanding its potentials and risks. Here we review the state-of-the-art knowledge about stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection and an idealized proxy for this, ‘sunshade geoengineering,’ in which the intensity of incoming sunlight is directly reduced in models. Studies are consistent in suggesting that sunshade geoengineering and stratospheric aerosol injection would generally offset the climate effects of elevated GHG concentrations. However, it is clear that a solar geoengineered climate would be novel in some respects, one example being a notably reduced hydrological cycle intensity. Moreover, we provide an overview of nonclimatic aspects of the response to stratospheric aerosol injection, for example, its effect on ozone, and the uncertainties around its consequences. We also consider the issues raised by the partial control over the climate that solar geoengineering would allow. Finally, this overview highlights some key research gaps in need of being resolved to provide sound basis for guidance of future decisions around solar geoengineering.
%B Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change %G eng %U http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.423/abstract %0 Journal Article %J Earth's Future %D 2016 %T Tipping elements and climate-economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment %A Robert E. Kopp %A Rachael Shwom %A Gernot Wagner %A Jiacan Yuan %XThe literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic ‘tipping points’ and large economic shocks, frequently called ‘catastrophes’. The phrase ‘tipping points’ in this context can be misleading. In popular and social scientific discourse, ‘tipping points’ involve abrupt state changes. For some climatic ‘tipping points,’ the commitment to a state change may occur abruptly, but the change itself may be rate-limited and take centuries or longer to realize. Additionally, the connection between climatic ‘tipping points’ and economic losses is tenuous, though emerging empirical and process-model-based tools provide pathways for investigating it. We propose terminology to clarify the distinction between ‘tipping points’ in the popular sense, the critical thresholds exhibited by climatic and social ‘tipping elements,’ and ‘economic shocks’. The last may be associated with tipping elements, gradual climate change, or non-climatic triggers. We illustrate our proposed distinctions by surveying the literature on climatic tipping elements, climatically sensitive social tipping elements, and climate-economic shocks, and we propose a research agenda to advance the integrated assessment of all three.
%B Earth's Future %G eng %U http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000362/abstract %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2016 %T Modeling the effects of climate engineering %A David Keith %A Gernot Wagner %A Juan Moreno-Cruz %B Science %V 352 %P 1526-1527 %G eng %U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6293/1526.3 %N 6293 %R 10.1126/science.aag1630 %0 Web Page %D 2016 %T Stated estimates for city-integrated wind and solar PV are too high %A Lee Miller %A Vaclav Smil %A Gernot Wagner %A David Keith %B Science eLetter %G eng %U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6288/922.e-letters %0 Journal Article %J The Oxford University Press %D 2016 %T The International Politics of Climate Engineering: A Review and Prospectus for International Relations %A Joshua Horton %A Jesse Reynolds %XProposed large-scale intentional interventions in natural systems in order to counter climate change, typically called “climate engineering” or “geoengineering,” stand to dramatically alter the international politics of climate change and potentially much more. There is currently a significant and growing literature on the international politics of climate engineering. However, it has been produced primarily by scholars from outside the discipline of International Relations (IR). We are concerned that IR scholars are missing a critical opportunity to offer insights into, and perhaps help shape, the emerging international politics of climate engineering. To that end, the primary goal of this paper is to call the attention of the IR community to these developments. Thus, we offer here an overview of the existing literature on the international politics of climate engineering and a preliminary assessment of its strengths and lacunae. We trace several key themes in this corpus, including problem structure, the concern that climate engineering could undermine emissions cuts, the potentially “slippery slope” of research and development, unilateral implementation, interstate conflict, militarization, rising tensions between industrialized and developing countries, and governance challenges and opportunities. The international politics of climate engineering is then considered through the lenses of the leading IR theories (Realism, Institutionalism, Liberalism, and Constructivism), exploring both what they have contributed and possible lines of future inquiry. Disciplinary IR scholars should have much to say on a number of topics related to climate engineering, including its power and transformational potentials, the possibility of counter-climate engineering, issues of institutional design, international law, and emergent practices. We believe that it is incumbent on the IR community, whose defining focus is international relations, to turn its attention to these unprecedented technologies and to the full scope of possible ramifications they might have for the international system.
%B The Oxford University Press %G eng %U http://isr.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/03/17/isr.viv013 %0 Journal Article %J Policy Brief, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School %D 2016 %T Implications of the Paris Agreement for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Solar Geoengineering %A Joshua Horton %A David Keith %A Matthias Honegger %B Policy Brief, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School %G eng %U http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/26842/implications_of_the_paris_agreement_for_carbon_dioxide_removal_and_solar_geoengineering.html?breadcrumb=%2Fproject%2F56%2Fharvard_project_on_climate_agreements %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences %D 2016 %T Key impacts of climate engineering on biodiversity and ecosystems, with priorities for future research %A Caitlin G. McCormack %A Wanda Born %A Peter Irvine %A Eric P. Achterberg %A Tatsuya Amano %A Jeff Ardron %A Pru N. Foster %A Jean-Pierre Gattuso %A Stephen J. Hawkins %A Erica Hendy %A W. Daniel Kissling %A Salvador E. Lluch-Cota %A Eugene J. Murphy %A Nick Ostle %A Nicholas J.P. Owens %A R. Ian Perry %A Hans O. Pörtner %A Robert J. Scholes %A Frank M. Schurr %A Oliver Schweiger %A Josef Settele %A Rebecca K. Smith %A Sarah Smith %A Jill Thompson %A Derek P. Tittensor %A Mark van Kleunen %A Chris Vivian %A Katrin Vohland %A Rachel Warren %A Andrew R. Watkinson %A Steve Widdicombe %A Phillip Williamson %A Emma Woods %A Jason J. Blackstock %A William J. Sutherland %XClimate change has significant implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. With slow progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate engineering (or ‘geoengineering’) is receiving increasing attention for its potential to limit anthropogenic climate change and its damaging effects. Proposed techniques, such as ocean fertilization for carbon dioxide removal or stratospheric sulfate injections to reduce incoming solar radiation, would significantly alter atmospheric, terrestrial and marine environments, yet potential side-effects of their implementation for ecosystems and biodiversity have received little attention. A literature review was carried out to identify details of the potential ecological effects of climate engineering techniques. A group of biodiversity and environmental change researchers then employed a modified Delphi expert consultation technique to evaluate this evidence and prioritize the effects based on the relative importance of, and scientific understanding about, their biodiversity and ecosystem consequences. The key issues and knowledge gaps are used to shape a discussion of the biodiversity and ecosystem implications of climate engineering, including novel climatic conditions, alterations to marine systems and substantial terrestrial habitat change. This review highlights several current research priorities in which the climate engineering context is crucial to consider, as well as identifying some novel topics for ecological investigation.
%B Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences %P 1-26 %G eng %U http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1943815X.2016.1159578 %0 Book Section %B Climate Justice and Geoengineering: Ethics and Policy in the Atmospheric Anthropocene %D 2016 %T Solar Geoengineering and Obligations to the Global Poor %A Joshua Horton %A David Keith %E Christopher J. Preston %B Climate Justice and Geoengineering: Ethics and Policy in the Atmospheric Anthropocene %I Rowman & Littlefield %C London %G eng %U http://www.rowmaninternational.com/books/climate-justice-and-geoengineering %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %D 2016 %T Wind speed reductions by large-scale wind turbine deployments lower turbine efficiencies and set low generation limits %A Lee Miller %A Axel Kleidon %XWind turbines generate electricity by removing kinetic energy from the atmosphere. Large numbers of wind turbines are likely to reduce wind speeds, which lowers estimates of electricity generation from what would be presumed from unaffected conditions. Here, we test how well wind power limits that account for this effect can be estimated without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. We first use simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that explicitly simulates the effects of wind turbines to derive wind power limits (GCM estimate), and compare them to a simple approach derived from the climatological conditions without turbines [vertical kinetic energy (VKE) estimate]. On land, we find strong agreement between the VKE and GCM estimates with respect to electricity generation rates (0.32 and 0.37 We m−2) and wind speed reductions by 42 and 44%. Over ocean, the GCM estimate is about twice the VKE estimate (0.59 and 0.29 We m−2) and yet with comparable wind speed reductions (50 and 42%). We then show that this bias can be corrected by modifying the downward momentum flux to the surface. Thus, large-scale limits to wind power use can be derived from climatological conditions without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. Consistent with the GCM simulations, the approach estimates that only comparatively few land areas are suitable to generate more than 1 We m−2 of electricity and that larger deployment scales are likely to reduce the expected electricity generation rate of each turbine. We conclude that these atmospheric effects are relevant for planning the future expansion of wind power.
%B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %G eng %U http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/11/08/1602253113.full.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2015 %T Climate Emergencies Do Not Justify Engineering the Climate %A Jana Sillmann %A Timothy M. Lenton %A Anders Levermann %A Konrad Ott %A Mike Hulme %A Francois Benduhn %A Joshua Horton %B Nature Climate Change %G eng %U http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2539.html %0 Report %D 2015 %T Designing Procedural Mechanisms for the Governance of Solar Radiation Management Field Experiments: Workshop Report %A Jason J. Blackstock %A Neil Craik %A Jack Doughty %A Joshua Horton %G eng %U https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/ottawa_workshop_feb_2015_1.pdf %0 Journal Article %J The Anthropocene Review %D 2015 %T The Emergency Framing of Solar Geoengineering: Time for a Different Approach %A Joshua Horton %B The Anthropocene Review %G eng %U http://anr.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/03/26/2053019615579922.abstract %0 Journal Article %J Energy and Environmental Science %D 2015 %T How much bulk energy storage is needed to decarbonize electricity? %A Hossein Safaei %A David Keith %B Energy and Environmental Science %V 8 %P 3409-3417 %G eng %U https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6wfH8hIAchFa1NPMXVpMk9MQ2M/view?usp=sharing %N 12 %R 10.1039/C5EE01452B %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2015 %T Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health %A Steven R. H. Barrett %A Raymond L. Speth %A Sebastian D. Eastham %A Irene C. Dedoussi %A Akshay Ashok %A Robert Malina %A David Keith %B Environmental Research Letters %V 10 %P 114005 %G eng %U http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114005 %N 11 %0 Journal Article %J NYU Environmental Law Journal %D 2015 %T Liability for Solar Geoengineering: Historical Precedents, Contemporary Innovations, and Governance Possibilities %A Joshua Horton %A Andrew Parker %A David Keith %B NYU Environmental Law Journal %V 22 %P 225-273 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/176.horton.keith_.liabilityforsolargeoengineering.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics %D 2015 %T Solar geoengineering using solid aerosol in the stratosphere %A Debra Weisenstein %A David Keith %A John Dykema %B Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics %V 15 %P 11835-11859 %G eng %U http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/11835/2015/acp-15-11835-2015.html %R 10.5194/acp-15-11835-2015 %0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2015 %T A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering %A David Keith %A Douglas G. MacMartin %B Nature Climate Change %V 5 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/174.keith_.macmartin.atemporarymoderateandresponsivescenarioforsolargeoengineering.pdf %R 10.1038/NCLIMATE2493 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States %D 2015 %T Two methods for estimating limits to large-scale wind power generation %A Lee Miller %A Nathaniel A. Brunsell %A David B. Mechem %A Fabian Gans %A Andrew J. Monaghan %A Robert Vautard %A David Keith %A Axel Kleidon %B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States %V 112 %P 11169–11174 %G eng %U http://www.pnas.org/content/112/36/11169.full %R 10.1073/pnas.1408251112 %0 Journal Article %J Our world and us: How our environment and our societies will change %D 2015 %T Will solar geoengineering help us manage the risks of climate change? %A David Keith %A Andy Parker %B Our world and us: How our environment and our societies will change %P 76-92 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/175.keith_.parker.willsolargeoengineeringhelpusmanagetherisksofclimatechange.pdf %0 Journal Article %D 2015 %T Workshop on Climate Effects of Wind Turbines, American Meteorological Society %A Kerry Emanuel %A Frauke Hoss %A David Keith %A Zhiming Kuang %A Julie Lundquist %A Lee Miller %G eng %U http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00231.1 %R 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00231.1 %0 Journal Article %J Atmospheric Environment %D 2014 %T Development and evaluation of the unified tropospheric–stratospheric chemistry extension (UCX) for the global chemistry-transport model GEOS-Chem %A Sebastian D. Eastham %A Debra K. Weisenstein %A Steven R. H. Barrett %XGlobal chemistry-transport models (CTMs) typically use simplified parameterizations or relaxation to climatology to estimate the chemical behavior of the stratosphere only in the context of its impact on tropospheric chemistry. This limits investigation of stratospheric chemistry and interactions between tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry-transport processes. We incorporate stratospheric chemical and physical processes into the model GEOS-Chem in the form of a unified chemistry extension (UCX). The stratospheric chemistry framework from NASA’s Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) is updated in accordance with JPL 10-06 and combined with GEOS-Chem’s existing widely applied and validated tropospheric chemistry to form a single, unified gas-phase chemistry scheme. Aerosol calculations are extended to include heterogeneous halogen chemistry and the formation, sedimentation and evaporation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) as well as background liquid binary sulfate (LBS) aerosols. The Fast-JX v7.0a photolysis scheme replaces a hybrid of Fast-J and Fast-JX v6.2, allowing photolytic destruction at frequencies relevant to the stratosphere and of species not previously modeled. Finally, new boundary conditions are implemented to cover both surface emissions of new species and mesospheric behavior. Results for four simulation years (2004-2007) are compared to those from the original, tropospheric model and to in situ and satellite-based measurements. We use these comparisons to show that the extended model is capable of modeling stratospheric chemistry efficiently without compromising the accuracy of the model at lower altitudes, perturbing mean OH below 250 hPa by less than 5% while successfully capturing stratospheric behavior not previously captured in GEOS-Chem such as formation and collapse of the Antarctic ozone hole. These extensions (with supporting validation and intercomparison) enable an existing and extensively validated tropospheric CTM to be used to investigate a broader set of atmospheric chemistry problems and leverages GEOS-Chem’s existing tropospheric treatment.
%B Atmospheric Environment %V 89 %P 52-63 %G eng %U http://keith.seas.harvard.edu/files/tkg/files/Eastham-Weisenstein-Barrett-2014.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %D 2014 %T Field experiments on solar geoengineering: report of a workshop exploring a representative research portfolio %A David Keith %A Riley Duren %A Douglas MacMartin %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %V 372 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/171.keith_.fieldexperimentsonsolargeoengineering.pdf %0 Journal Article %J American Control Conference %D 2014 %T Geoengineering: the world’s largest control problem %A MacMartin %A D. G. %A B. Kravitz %A D. W. Keith %B American Control Conference %P 2401-2406 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/168.macmartin.controlproblem.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2014 %T A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering %A Ben Kravitz %A Douglas MacMartin %A Alan Robock %A Philip Rasch %A Katharine Ricke %A Jason Cole %A Charles Curry %A Pete Irvine %A Duoying Ji %A David Keith %A Jon Egill Kristjánsson %A John Moore %A Helene Muri %A Balwinder Singh %A Simone Tilmes %A Shingo Watanabe %A Shuting Yang %A Jin-Ho Yoon %B Environmental Research Letters %V 9 %G eng %U http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/7/074013/pdf/1748-9326_9_7_074013.pdf %R 10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013 %0 Journal Article %J Policy Options %D 2014 %T Not a superpower %A David Keith %B Policy Options %V 35 %P 18-20 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/170.keith_.notasuperpower.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Ethics, Policy & Environment %D 2014 %T Solar Geoengineering: Reassessing Benefits, Costs, and Compensation %A Joshua Horton %B Ethics, Policy & Environment %G eng %U http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21550085.2014.926078#.VMEsdVofyfR %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %D 2014 %T Solar geoengineering to limit rate of temperature change %A Douglas MacMartin %A Ken Caldeira %A David Keith %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %V 372 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/172.macmartin.caldeira.keith_.solargeoengineeringtolimittherateoftemperaturechange.pdf %R 10.1098/rsta.2014.0134 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %D 2014 %T Stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment (SCoPEx): a small-scale experiment to improve understanding of the risks of solar geoengineering %A John Dykema %A David Keith %A James G. Anderson %A Debra Weisenstein %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %V 372 %G eng %U http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/372/2031/20140059.full %R 10.1098/rsta.2014.0059 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2013 %T Are global wind power resource estimates overstated? %A Amanda Adams %A David Keith %B Environmental Research Letters %V 8 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/160.adams_.keith_.globalwindpowerestimates.e.pdf %R 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015021 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Applied Energy %D 2013 %T Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) with compressors distributed at heat loads to enable waste heat utilization %A Hossein Safaei %A David Keith %A Ronald Hugo %B Journal of Applied Energy %V 103 %P 165-179 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/156.safaei.keith_.hugo_.caes_.e.pdf %R dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.09.027 %0 Journal Article %J Energy Conversion and Management %D 2013 %T Compressed air energy storage with waste heat export: An Alberta case study %A Hossein Safaei %A David Keith %B Energy Conversion and Management %V 78 %P 114–124 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/164.safaei.keith_.compressedairenergystor.p.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Climate Dynamics %D 2013 %T Dynamics of the coupled human-climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering %A Douglas MacMartin %A Ben Kravitz %A David Keith %A Andrew Jarvis %B Climate Dynamics %V 43 %P 243-258 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/165.macmartin.keith_.etal_.dynamicsofthecoupledhuman-climatesystem.pdf %R 10.1007/s00382-013-1822-9 %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2013 %T End the Deadlock on Governance of Geoengineering Research %A Edward Parson %A David Keith %B Science %V 339 %P 1278-1279 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/163.parson.keith_.deadlockongonvernance.p.pdf %R 10.1126/science.1232527 %0 Journal Article %J Scientific American %D 2013 %T The fate of an engineered planet %A David Keith %A Andy Parker %B Scientific American %V 308 %P 34-36 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/161.keith_.parker.engineeredplanet.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2013 %T Public Engagement on Solar Radiation Management and Why it Needs to Happen Now %A Wylie Carr %A Christopher Preston %A Laurie Yung %A David Keith %A Bronislaw Szerszynski %A Ashley Mercer %B Nature Climate Change %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/157.carr_.etal_publicengageonsrm.p.pdf %R 10.1007/s10584-013-0763-y %0 Journal Article %J Geoengineering Our Climate Working Paper and Opinion Article Series %D 2013 %T Solar Geoengineering and the Problem of Liability %A Joshua Horton %A Andy Parker %A David Keith %B Geoengineering Our Climate Working Paper and Opinion Article Series %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/166.horton_etal.solargeoliabilty.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A – Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences %D 2012 %T An Air-Liquid Contactor for Large-Scale Capture of CO2 from Air %A Geoffrey Holmes %A David Keith %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A – Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences %V 370 %P 4380-4403 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/148.holmes.keith_.contactorforlargescalecapture.e.pdf %R 10.1098/rsta.2012.0137 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2012 %T Climate Policy under Uncertainty: A Case for Geoengineering %A Juan Moreno-Cruz %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/117.moreno-cruz.climpoluncert-caseforgeoeng.e.pdf %R 10.1007/s10584-012-0487-4 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2012 %T Cost analysis of stratospheric albedo modification delivery systems %A Justin McClellan %A David Keith %A Jay Apt %B Environmental Research Letters %V 7 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/159.mcclellan.2012.costanalysisofstratosp.e.pdf %R 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034019 %0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2012 %T Management of trade-offs in geoengineering through optimal choice of non-uniform radiative forcing %A Douglas MacMartin %A David Keith %A Ben Kravitz %A Ken Caldeira %B Nature Climate Change %V 3 %P 365-368 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/158.1macmartin.etal_.managingtradeoffsthroughnonradforc.e.pdf %R 10.1038/nclimate1722 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of ASME 2011 5th International Conference on Energy Sustainability and 9th Fuel Cell, Science, Engineering and Technology Conference. Washington, DC. %D 2011 %T Enhancing the Economics of Wind-Based Compressed Air Energy Storage by Waste Heat Recovery %A Hossein Safaei Mohamadabadi %A Ronald J. Hugo %A David W. Keith %B Proceedings of ASME 2011 5th International Conference on Energy Sustainability and 9th Fuel Cell, Science, Engineering and Technology Conference. Washington, DC. %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Near Zero %D 2011 %T Is the solar photovoltaic learning curve flattening? %A David Keith %A Juan Moreno-Cruz %B Near Zero %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/178.keith_and_moreno-cruz.isthesolarphotovoltaiclearningcurveflattening.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Energy and Environmental Science %D 2011 %T Can we test geoengineering? %A Douglas MacMynowski %A H.-J. Shin %A Ken Caldeira %A David Keith %B Energy and Environmental Science %V 4 %P 5044-5052 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/128.macmynowski.canwetestgeoeng.e.pdf %R 10.1039/C1EE01256H %0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2011 %T Effectiveness of stratospheric solar radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity %A Katharine Ricke %A Daniel Rowlands %A William Ingram %A David Keith %A M. Granger Morgan %B Nature Climate Change %V 2 %P 92-96 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/155.ricke_.etal_.stratsolarradmgmt.e.pdf %R 10.1038/nclimate1328 %0 Journal Article %J Energy Policy %D 2011 %T Evaluating the Role of Cogeneration for Carbon Management in Alberta %A G. Doluweera %A S. Jordaan %A J. Bergerson %A M. Moore %A David Keith %B Energy Policy %V 39 %P 7963–7974 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/149.doluweera.etal_.evalrolecongeneration.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.051 %0 Journal Article %J Task Force on Climate Remediation Research, The Bipartisan Policy Center %D 2011 %T Geoengineering: A national strategic plan for research on the potentialeffectiveness, feasibility, and consequences of climate remediation technologies %A Jane Long %A James Anderson %A Ken Caldeira %A Joe Chaisson %A David Goldston %A Steven Hamburg %A David Keith %A Ron Lehman %A Frank Loy %A Granger Morgan %A Daniel Sarewitz %A Thomas Schelling %A John Shepherd %A David Victor %A David Whelan %A David Winickoff %B Task Force on Climate Remediation Research, The Bipartisan Policy Center %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/bpc_climate_remediation_tf_final_report.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science and Technology %D 2011 %T LEED, Energy Savings, and Carbon Abatement: Related but Not Synonymous %A Eduard Cubi Montanya %A David Keith %B Environmental Science and Technology %V 45 %P 1757-1758 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/133.cubi_.keith_.leed_.e.pdf %R 10.1021/es1041332 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2011 %T Public understanding of Solar Radiation Management %A A. M. Mercer %A David Keith %A J. D. Sharp %B Environmental Research Letters %V 6 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/150.mercer_keith_sharp.publicunderstandingsrm.e_0.pdf %R 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044006 %0 Journal Article %J Physics Today %D 2011 %T Reshaping the energy landscape %A David Keith %B Physics Today %V 64 %P 56-57 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/152.keith_.reshapingenergylandscape.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2011 %T A simple model to account for regional inequalities in the effectiveness of solar radiation management %A Juan Moreno-Cruz %A Katharine Ricke %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %V 110 %P 649-668 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/131.moreno-cruz.inequality.srm_.e_0.pdf %R 10.1007/s10584-011-0103-z %0 Journal Article %J Capturing CO2 from the atmosphere: Rationale and Process Design Considerations %D 2010 %T Capturing CO2 from the atmosphere: Rationale and Process Design Considerations %A David Keith %A Kenton Heidel %A Robert Cherry %B Capturing CO2 from the atmosphere: Rationale and Process Design Considerations %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/116.cherry.heidel.capco2fromatmosp.p.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Geophysical Research Letters %D 2010 %T Efficient formation of stratospheric aerosol for climate engineering by emission of condensible vapor from aircraft %A Jeffrey Pierce %A Debra Weisenstein %A Patricia Heckendorn %A Thomas Peter %A David Keith %B Geophysical Research Letters %V 37 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/127.pierce.efficientformstratsaerosol.e.pdf %R 10.1029/2010GL043975 %0 Book Section %B Climate Change Science and Policy by S. Schneider and M. Mastrandrea %D 2010 %T Engineering the Planet %A David Keith %B Climate Change Science and Policy by S. Schneider and M. Mastrandrea %I Island Press %C Washington DC %P 49 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/89.keith_.engineeringtheplanet.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control %D 2010 %T Evolution of Hydrogen Sulfide in Sour Saline Aquifers During Carbon Dioxide Sequestration %A Seyyed Ghaderi %A David Keith %A Rob Lavoie %A Yuri Leonenko %B International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control %V 5 %P 347-355 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/124.ghaderi.keith_.lavoie.lenoenko.evolhydrsulf.p.pdf %R 10.1016/j.ijggc.2010.09.008 %0 Journal Article %J PNAS %D 2010 %T Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing %A Kristen Zickfeld %A M. Granger Morgan %A David Frame %A David Keith %B PNAS %V 107 %P 12451-12456 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/129.zickfeld.etal_.expertjudgements.e.pdf %R 10.1073/pnas.0908906107 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 2010 %T Land Use Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Conventional Oil Production and Oil Sands %A Sonia Yeh %A Sarah Jordaan %A Adam Brandt %A Merritt Turetsky %A Sabrina Spatari %A David Keith %B Environmental Science & Technology %V 44 %P 8766-8872 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/130.yeh_.jordaan.etal_.landuseghgemissions.e.pdf %R 10.1021/es1013278 %0 Journal Article %J Issues in Science and Technology %D 2010 %T The Need for Climate Engineering Research %A Ken Caldeira %A David Keith %B Issues in Science and Technology %V 27 %P 57-62 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/132.caldeira.needforcliengres.e.pdf %0 Government Document %D 2010 %T Photophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering %A David Keith %B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %V 107 %P 16428-16431 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/96.keith_.2010.photophoriclevengaerosols.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 2010 %T Pitfalls of coal peak production %A David Keith %A Juan Moreno-Cruz %B Nature %V 469 %P 472 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/147.keith_.moreno-cruz.pitfallsofcoalpk.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 2010 %T Research on global sun block needed now %A David Keith %A Edward Parson %A M. Granger Morgan %B Nature %V 463 %P 426-427 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/125.keithparsonmorgon.globalsunblock.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 2010 %T The truth about dirty oil: Is CCS the answer? %A Joule Bergerson %A David Keith %B Environmental Science & Technology %V 44 %P 6010-6015 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/123.bergersonkeith.dirtyoil.e.pdf %R 10.1021/es903812e %0 Journal Article %J Alberta Carbon Capture and Storage Development Council %D 2009 %T Accelerating Carbon Capture and Storage Implementation in Alberta %A Jim Carter %A Bill Andrew %A John Brannan %A David Collyer %A Cassie Doyle %A Jim Ellis %A David Keith %A Don Lowry %A Art Meyer %A Mike Percy %A Kathy Sendall %A Ian Shugart %A Roger Thomas %A Peter Watson %A Len Webber %A Steve Williams %B Alberta Carbon Capture and Storage Development Council %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Energy & Fuels %D 2009 %T Accelerating CO2 Dissolution in Saline Aquifers for Geological Storage–Mechanistic and Sensitivity Studies %A Hassan Hassanzadeh %A Mehran Pooladi-Darvish %A David Keith %B Energy & Fuels %V 23 %P 3328-3336 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/87.hassanzadeh.acceleratingco2dissolution.e.pdf %R 10.1021/ef900125m %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies %D 2009 %T Analytical Solution to Evaluate Salt Precipitation during CO2 Injection in Saline Aquifers %A Mehdi Zeidouni %A Mehran Pooladi-Darvish %A David Keith %B International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies %V 3 %P 600-611 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/102.zeidouni.evalsaltprec.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.ijggc.2009.04.004 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control %D 2009 %T Anticipating Public Attitudes toward Underground CO2 Storage %A Jacqueline Sharp %A Mark Jaccard %A David Keith %B International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control %V 3 %P 641-651 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/110.sharp_.publicattitudesco2storage.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.ijggc.2009.04.001 %0 Government Document %D 2009 %T Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making %A Granger Morgan %A Hadi Dowlatabadi %A Max Henrion %A David Keith %A Robert Lempert %A Sandra McBride %A Mitchell Small %A Thomas Wilbanks %B Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2. U.S. Climate Change Science Program %G eng %U http://www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/best-practice-approaches-characterizing-communicating-and-incorporating-scientific %0 Journal Article %J National Comission on Energy Policy %D 2009 %T Biomass co-utilization with unconventional fossil fuels to advance energy security and climate policy %A James Rhodes %A David Keith %B National Comission on Energy Policy %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/126.rhodes.2009.biomassco-util.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Novim %D 2009 %T Climate Engineering Responses to Climate Emergencies %A Jason Blackstock %A David Battisti %A Ken Caldeira %A Douglas Eardley %A Jonathan Katz %A David Keith %A Aristides Patrinos %A Daniel Schrag %A Robert Socolow %A Steven Koonin %B Novim %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/119.blackstock.etal_.climateengresptoclimemerg.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Dangerous Abundance %D 2009 %T Dangerous Abundance %A David Keith %B Dangerous Abundance %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/114.keith_.dangerous.abundance.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Energy Procedia %D 2009 %T Feasibility of Injecting Large Volumes of CO2 into Aquifers %A Seyyed Ghaderi %A David Keith %A Yuri Lenonenko %B Energy Procedia %V 1 %P 3113-3120 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/121.ghaderi.feasinjectlgvol.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J The Royal Society %D 2009 %T Geoengineering the climate - Science, governance and uncertainty %A John Shepherd %A Ken Caldeira %A Joanna Haigh %A David Keith %A Brian Launder %A Georgina Mace %A Gordon MacKerron %A John Pyle %A Steve Rayner %A Catherine Redgwell %A Peter Cox %A Andrew Watson %B The Royal Society %G eng %U http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf %0 Journal Article %J American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers %D 2009 %T Integrated design & UFAD %A Eduard Cubi Montanya %A David Keith %A Jim Love %B American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers %V 51 %P 30-40 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/111.cubi_.ufad_.challenges.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Energy Procedia %D 2009 %T Low energy packed tower and caustic recovery for direct capture of CO2 from air %A M. Mahmoudkhani %A K.R. Heidel %A J.C. Ferreira %A David Keith %A R.S Cherry %B Energy Procedia %V 1 %P 1535-1542 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/120.khani_.heidel.ferreira.keith_.cherry.lowenergypackedtower-ghgt9.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.egypro.2009.01.201 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies %D 2009 %T Low-energy sodium hydroxide recovery for CO2 capture from air %A Maryam Mahmoudkhani %A David Keith %B International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies %V 3 %P 376-384 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/101.mahamoudkhani.low-energysodiumhydrec.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.ijggc.2009.02.003 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2009 %T Quantifying land use of oil sands production: a life cycle perspective %A Sarah Jordaan %A David Keith %A Brad Stelfox %B Environmental Research Letters %V 4 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/112.jordaan.quantlanduseofoilsandsprod.e.pdf %R 10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024004 %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2009 %T Why Capture CO2 From The Atmosphere %A David Keith %B Science %V 325 %P 1654-1655 %G eng %U http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/325/5948/1654?ijkey=0qEXY.KSEq3KA&keytype=ref&siteid=sci %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2008 %T Assessing Geochemical Carbon Management %A Jennie Stephens %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %V 90 %P 217-242 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/75.stephens.geochemicalcarbonmanagement.p.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2008 %T Biomass with Capture: Negative Emissions Within social and Environmental Constraints %A James Rhodes %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %V 87 %P 321-328 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/95.rhodes.biomasswithcaptureed.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Natural Resources Canada %D 2008 %T Canada's Fossil Energy Future: The Way Forward on Carbon Capture and Storage %A Ian Anderson %A David Keith %A Kathleen Sendall %A Steve Snyder %A Patricia Youzwa %B Natural Resources Canada %G eng %U http://www.energy.alberta.ca/org/pdfs/fossil_energy_e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 2008 %T Carbon dioxide capture from atmospheric air using sodium hydroxide spray %A Joshuah Stolaroff %A David Keith %A Gregory Lowry %B Environmental Science & Technology %V 42 %P 2728-2735 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/97.stolaroff.aircapturecontactor.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %D 2008 %T Carbon Neutral Hydrocarbons %A Frank Zeman %A David Keith %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A %V 366 %P 3901-3918 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/103.zeman_.2008.chncs_.e.pdf %R 10.1098/rsta.2008.0143 %0 Journal Article %J British Columbia %D 2008 %T Climate Action Plan %A Cheryl Slusarchuk %A Shawn Atleo %A Donna Barnett %A Jeff Burghardt %A Lyn Brown %A Randy McLeod %A Joe Van Belleghem %A Teresa Coady %A Ian Tostenon %A Andrew Weaver %A John Robinson %A Naomi Devine %A Peter Robinson %A David Keith %A John Walker %A Mossadiq Umedaly %B British Columbia %G eng %U http://www.livesmartbc.ca/attachments/climateaction_plan_web.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Atmospheric Sciences %D 2008 %T On the climate impact of surface roughness %A Daniel Kirk-Davidoff %A David Keith %B Journal of Atmospheric Sciences %V 65 %P 2215-2234 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/94.kirk-davidoff.surfaceroughnessjas.p.pdf %R 10.1175/2007JAS2509.1 %0 Journal Article %J American Institute of Chemical Engineers Journal %D 2008 %T The Effect of Natural Flow of Aquifers and Associated Dispersion on the Onset of Buoyancy-driven Convection in a Saturated Porous Medium %A Hassan Hassanzadeh %A Mehran Pooladi-Darvish %A David Keith %B American Institute of Chemical Engineers Journal %V 55 %P 475-485 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/82.hassanzadeh.natflowofaquif.e.pdf %N 2 %R 10.1002/aic.11664 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 2008 %T Expert Assessments of Future Photovoltaic Technologies %A Aimee Curtright %A M. Granger Morgan %A David Keith %B Environmental Science & Technology %V 42 %P 9031-9038 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/100.curtright.futphotovoltaictech.e.pdf %N 24 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2008 %T Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide %A M. Granger Morgan %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %V 90 %P 189-215 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/92.morgan.improvingscenarios.e.pdf %R 10.1007/s10584-008-9458-1 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 2008 %T Regulating the Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide %A Elizabeth Wilson %A M. Granger Morgan %A Jay Apt %A Mark Bonner %A Christopher Bunting %A M. A. D. Figueiredo %A Jenny Gode %A Carlo Jaeger %A David Keith %A Sean McCoy %A R. Stuart Haszeldine %A Melisa Pollak %A David Reiner %A Edward Rubin %A Asbjorn Torvanger %A Christina Ulardic %A Shalini Vajjhala %A David Victor %A Iain Wright %B Environmental Science & Technology %V 42 %P 2718–2722 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/98.wilson.regulatinggeoseq.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 2008 %T Reservoir Engineering To Accelerate the Dissolution of CO2 Stored in Aquifers %A Yuri Leonenko %A David Keith %B Environmental Science & Technology %V 42 %P 2742-2747 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/93.leonenko.accelerated.disolution.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Energy Journal %D 2007 %T Carbon Capture Retrofits and the Cost of Regulatory Uncertainty %A Peter Reinelt %A David Keith %B Energy Journal %V 28 %P 101-127 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/78.reinelt.powergenerationuncertiangascarbon.s.pdf %N 4 %0 Journal Article %J Geophysical Research Letters %D 2007 %T Carbon-cycle feedbacks increase the likelihood of a warmer future %A H. Damon Matthews %A David Keith %B Geophysical Research Letters %V 34 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/83.matthews.carbonfeedback.f.pdf %R 10.1029/2006GL028685 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2007 %T Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change %A Kristen Zickfeld %A Anders Levermann %A David Keith %A Till Kuhlbrodt %A M. Granger Morgan %A Stefan Rahmstorf %B Climatic Change %V 82 %P 235-265 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/79.zickfeld.2007.oceanoverturningexpertjudgment.e.pdf %R 10.1007/s10584-007-9246-3 %0 Journal Article %J U.S. Climate Change Science Program %D 2007 %T Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use %A Virginia Burkett %A Karen Fisher-Vanden %A David Keith %A Linda Mearns %A Edward Parson %A Hugh Pitcher %A Cynthia Rosenzweig %A Mort Webster %B U.S. Climate Change Science Program %G eng %U http://www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/sap-21b-global-change-scenarios-their-development-and-use %0 Journal Article %J InterAcademy Council %D 2007 %T Lighting the way: Toward a sustainable energy future %A Shem Arungu Olende %A Steven Chu %A Ged Davis %A Mohamed El-Ashry %A Jose Goldemberg %A Thomas Johansson %A David Keith %A LI Jinghai %A Nebosja Nakicenovic %A R.K. Pachauri %A Majid Shafie-Pour %A Evald Shpilrain %A Robert Socolow %A Kenji Yamaji %A Luguang Yan %B InterAcademy Council %G eng %U http://www.interacademycouncil.net/File.aspx?id=24548 %0 Journal Article %J The 26th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering %D 2007 %T Ocean storage of carbon dioxide: pipelines, risers and seabed containment %A Andrew Palmer %A David Keith %A Richard Doctor %B The 26th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/91.palmer.2007.seabedengineeredstorage.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control %D 2007 %T Predicting PVT data for CO2–brine mixtures for black-oil simulation of CO2 geological storage %A Hassan Hassanzadeh %A Mehran Pooladi-Darvish %A Adel Elsharkawy %A David Keith %A Yuri Leonenko %B International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control %V 2 %P 65-77 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/81.hassanzadeh.pvtco2blackoil.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Issues in Science and Technology %D 2007 %T Promoting Low-Carbon Electricity Production %A Jay Apt %A David Keith %A M. Granger Morgan %B Issues in Science and Technology %V 3 %P 37-43 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/88.apt_.lowcarbonist.s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J United States National Research Council, Washington, DC: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems %D 2007 %T Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two), Report of the Panel on DOE's Carbon Sequestration Program %A Lester Lave %A Charles Christopher %A George Hidy %A W. S. Winston Ho %A David Keith %A Larry Lake %A Michael Pilson %A Jeffrey Siirola %A James Smith %A Robert Socolow %A John Wootten %B United States National Research Council, Washington, DC: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/99.nrc_.2007.doecarbonseqpgm.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J American Institute of Chemical Engineers Journal %D 2007 %T Scaling Behavior of Convective Mixing, with Application to Geological Storage of CO2 %A Hassan Hassanzadeh %A Mehran Pooladi-Darvish %A David Keith %B American Institute of Chemical Engineers Journal %V 53 %P 1121-1131 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/90.hassanzadeh.2007.scalingconvectivemixing.e.pdf %N 5 %0 Journal Article %J Energy Policy %D 2006 %T The Economics of Large Scale Wind Power in a Carbon Constrained World %A Joseph DeCarolis %A David Keith %B Energy Policy %V 34 %P 395-410 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/65.decarolis.2006.economicsofwind.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.enpol.2004.06.007 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2006 %T Elicitation of expert judgments of aerosol forcing %A M. Granger Morgan %A Peter Adams %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %V 75 %P 195-214 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/77.morgan.aerosolelicitation.e.pdf %R 10.1007/s10584-005-9025-y %0 Journal Article %J Energy Policy %D 2006 %T Evaluation of Potential Cost Reductions from Improved Amine-based CO2 Capture Systems %A Anand Rao %A Edward Rubin %A David Keith %A M. Granger Morgan %B Energy Policy %V 34 %P 3765-3772 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/76.rao_.costreductoinsamineco2capture.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.08.004 %0 Journal Article %J Natural Resources Canada %D 2006 %T Powerful Connections: Priorities and Directions in Energy Science and Technology in Canada %A Angus Bruneau %A Denis Connor %A John Fox %A Daniel Kammen %A David Keith %A Patrick Lamarre %A Jacques Martel %A Ken McCready %A Patrice Best %A Laurier Schramm %B Natural Resources Canada %G eng %U http://epe.lac-bac.gc.ca/100/200/301/nrcan-rncan/oee-oee/powerful_connections-e/M4-40-2006E.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Transport in Porous Media %D 2006 %T Stability of a Fluid in a Horizontal Saturated Porous Layer: Effect of Non linear Concentration Profile, Initial, and Boundary Conditions %A H. Hassanzadeh %A M. Pooladi-Darvish %A David Keith %B Transport in Porous Media %V 65 %P 193-211 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/80.hassanzadeh.2006.stabilityinitalandbc.e.pdf %R 10.1007/s11242-005-6088-1 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2005 %T Climate strategy with CO2 capture from the air %A David Keith %A Minh Ha-Duong %A Joshuah Stolaroff %B Climatic Change %V 74 %P 17-45 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/51.keith_.2005.climatestratwithaircapture.e.pdf %R 10.1007/s10584-005-9026-x %0 Journal Article %J The Electricity Journal %D 2005 %T The Costs of Wind's Variability: Is There a Threshold? %A Joseph DeCarolis %A David Keith %B The Electricity Journal %V 18 %P 69-77 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/72.decarolis.2005.threshold.e.pdf %R /10.1016/j.tej.2004.12.006 %0 Journal Article %J Biomass & Bioenergy %D 2005 %T Engineering-economic analysis of biomass IGCC with carbon capture and storage %A James Rhodes %A David Keith %B Biomass & Bioenergy %V 29 %P 440-450 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/67.rhodes.2005.biomassccs.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.biombioe.2005.06.007 %0 Journal Article %J Cambridge University Press %D 2005 %T IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage %A Juan Carlos Abanades %A Makoto Akai %A Sally Benson %A Ken Caldeira %A Peter Cook %A Ogunlade Davidson %A Richard Doctor %A James Dooley %A Paul Freund %A John Gale %A Wolfgang Heidug %A Howard Herzog %A David Keith %A Marco Mazzotti %A Bert Metz %A Balgis Osman-Elasha %A Andrew Palmer %A Riitta Pipatti %A Koen Smekens %A Mohammed Soltanieh %A Kelly Thambimuthu %A Bob van der Zwaan %B Cambridge University Press %G eng %U http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology %D 2005 %T Modelling of Convective Mixing in CO2 Storage %A H. Hassanzadeh %A M. Pooladi-Darvish %A David Keith %B Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology %V 44 %P 42-52 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/70.hassanzadeh.2005.convectivemixing.e.pdf %N 10 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations %D 2005 %T Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies %A E. S. Rubin %A David Keith %A C. F. Gilboy %B Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science and Technology %D 2005 %T Regulating the Underground Injection of Carbon Dioxide %A David Keith %A Julie Giardina %A M. Granger Morgan %A Elizabeth Wilson %B Environmental Science and Technology %V 39 %P 499A-505A %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/73.keith_.estregulatingccs.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Energy Conversion and Management %D 2005 %T Using CaO- and MgO-rich Industrial Waste Streams for Carbon Sequestration %A Joshuah Stolaroff %A Gregory Lowry %A David Keith %B Energy Conversion and Management %V 46 %P 687-699 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/68.stolaroff.2005.caoandmgowaststreams.e.pdf %R 10.1016/j.enconman.2004.05.009 %0 Journal Article %J Energy Policy %D 2004 %T Fossil Electricity and CO2 Sequestration: How Natural Gas Prices, Initial Conditions and Retrofits Determine the Cost of Controlling CO2 Emissions %A Timothy Johnson %A David Keith %B Energy Policy %V 32 %P 367-382 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/49.johnson.2004.fossilelectricitywithoutco2.e.pdf %R 10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00298-7 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %D 2004 %T The influence of large-scale wind-power on global climate %A David Keith %A Joseph DeCarolis %A David Denkenberger %A Donald Lenschow %A Sergey Malyshev %A Stephen Pacala %A Philip Rasch %B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %V 101 %P 16115-16120 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/66.keith_.2004.windandclimate.e.pdf %N 46 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science and Technology %D 2004 %T Initial Public Perceptions of Deep Geological and Oceanic Disposal of Carbon Dioxide %A Claire Palmgren %A M. Granger Morgan %A Wandi Bruine de Bruin %A David Keith %B Environmental Science and Technology %V 38 %P 6441-6450 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/69.palmgren.2004.perceptionsofccs.e.pdf %R 10.1021/es040400c %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the 6th International Greenhouse Gas Control Conference, Kyoto, Japan. %D 2003 %T Biomass Energy with Geological Sequestration of CO2: Two for the Price of One? %A James S. Rhodes %A David W. Keith %B Proceedings of the 6th International Greenhouse Gas Control Conference, Kyoto, Japan. %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science and Technology %D 2003 %T Assessment of Potential Carbon Dioxide Reductions due to Biomass-Coal Cofiring in the United States %A A. L. Robinson %A J. S. Rhodes %A David Keith %B Environmental Science and Technology %V 37 %P 5081-5089 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/64.robinson.2003.biomasscofire.e.pdf %N 22 %R 10.1021/es034367q %0 Journal Article %J Clean Technology and Environmental Policy %D 2003 %T Carbon storage: the economic efficiency of storing CO2 in leaky reservoirs %A Minh Ha-Duong %A David Keith %B Clean Technology and Environmental Policy %V 5 %P 181-189 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/62.hadoung.2003.leakycarbonstorage.e.pdf %R 10.1007/s10098-003-0213-z %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science and Technology %D 2003 %T Regulating the Ultimate Sink: Managing the risks of geologic CO2 sequestration %A Elizabeth Wilson %A Timothy Johnson %A David Keith %B Environmental Science and Technology %V 37 %P 3476-3483 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/54.wilson.2003.regulatingtheultimatesink.e.pdf %R 10.1021/es021038 %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2003 %T Rethinking Hydrogen Cars %A David Keith %A Alexander Farrell %B Science %V 301 %P 315-316 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/63.keith_.2003.hydrogencars.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Energy Policy %D 2003 %T A strategy for introducing hydrogen into transportation %A Alexander Farrell %A David Keith %A James Corbett %B Energy Policy %V 31 %P 1357-1367 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/48.farrell.2003.astrategyforhydrogen.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the 1st International Doctoral Consortium on Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft, The Netherlands. %D 2002 %T Is the Answer to Climate Change Mitigation Blowing in the Wind? %A J. F. DeCarolis %A David Keith %B Proceedings of the 1st International Doctoral Consortium on Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft, The Netherlands. %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2002 %T Bury, burn or both: A two-for-one deal on biomass carbon and energy %A David Keith %A James Rhodes %B Climatic Change %V 54 %P 375-377 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/47.keith_.2002.buryburnorboth.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J University of Regina %D 2002 %T Developing Recommendations for the Management of Geologic Storage of CO2 in Canada %A David Keith %A Malcolm Wilson %B University of Regina %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/61.keith_.2002.canadianco2protocol.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J A. S. Goudie Encyclopedia of Global Change, New York, NY: Oxford University Press %D 2002 %T Geoengineering %A David Keith %B A. S. Goudie Encyclopedia of Global Change, New York, NY: Oxford University Press %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/44.keith_.2002.geoengoxfordency.f.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Erde. W. Hauser Klima. Das Experiment mit dem Planeten Erde %D 2002 %T Geoengineering - die technologische Gestaltung des Planeten Erde %A David Keith %B Erde. W. Hauser Klima. Das Experiment mit dem Planeten Erde %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/50.keith_.2002.deutschemuseum.s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J R. G. Watts Innovative Energy Strategies for CO2 Stabilization and Cambridge and UK: Cambridge University Press %D 2002 %T Geoengineering the Climate: History and Prospect %A David Keith %B R. G. Watts Innovative Energy Strategies for CO2 Stabilization and Cambridge and UK: Cambridge University Press %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Prepared by David Keith, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for the Oil, Gas and Energy Branch, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario %D 2002 %T Towards a Strategy for Implementing CO2 Capture and Storage in Canada %A David Keith %B Prepared by David Keith, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for the Oil, Gas and Energy Branch, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/46.keith_.2002.strategyforccsincanada.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Climate %D 2001 %T Accurate Spectrally Resolved Infrared Radiance Observation from Space: Implications for the Detection of Decade-to-Century-Scale Climatic Change %A David Keith %A James Anderson %B Journal of Climate %V 14 %P 979-990 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/34.keith_.2001.accurateradianceobsfromspace.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Applied Optics %D 2001 %T An Airborne Interferometer for Atmospheric Emission and Solar Absorption %A David Keith %A John Dykema %A Haijun Hu %A Larry Lapson %A James Anderson %B Applied Optics %V 40 %P 5463-5473 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/38.keith_.2001.anairborneinterferometer.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J National Academies Press (US) %D 2001 %T Carbon Management: Implications for R&D in the Chemical Sciences and Technology: A Workshop Report to the Chemical Sciences Roundtable %A J. A. Edmonds %A J. F. Clarke %A J. J. Dooley %A D. C. Thomas %A B. P. Flannery %A J. C. Stringer %A C. Creutz %A E. Fujita %A J. A. Spearot %A J. Turner %A David Keith %A L. E. Manzer %A H. H. Kung %A P. R. Gruber %A J. W. Frost %A K. M. Draths %A D. R. Knop %A M. K. Harrup %A J. L. Barker %A W. Niu %B National Academies Press (US) %G eng %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK44141/ %R 10.17226/10153 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association %D 2001 %T Electricity from Fossil Fuels Without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in US Electricity Markets %A T. L. Johnson %A David Keith %B Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association %V 51 %P 1452-1459 %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 2001 %T Geoengineering %A David Keith %B Nature %V 409 %P 420 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/37.keith_.2001.geoengineering.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J GD. Williams, B. Durie, P. McMullan, C. Paulson and A. Smith Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference, Collingwood, Australia: CSIRO Publishing %D 2001 %T Geoengineering and carbon management: Is there a meaningful distinction? %A David Keith %B GD. Williams, B. Durie, P. McMullan, C. Paulson and A. Smith Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference, Collingwood, Australia: CSIRO Publishing %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/41.keith_.2001.geogineeeringandcarbonmanagment.f.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Environment %D 2001 %T Hydrogen as a transportation fuel %A Alex Farrell %A David Keith %B Environment %V 43 %P 43-45 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/32_farrell_etal_2001_hydrogentransfuel.e.pdf %N 3 %0 Journal Article %J J. Katzenberger Elements of Change 2001, Aspen CO: Aspen Global Change Institute %D 2001 %T Industrial Carbon Management: A Review of the Technology and its Implications for Climate Policy %A David Keith %A M. Granger Morgan %B J. Katzenberger Elements of Change 2001, Aspen CO: Aspen Global Change Institute %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/39.keith_.2001.carbonmanagementareview.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2001 %T The Real Cost of Wind Energy %A Joseph DeCarolis %A David Keith %B Science %V 294 %P 1000-1002 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/31.decarolis.2001.realcostofwind.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J S. Farrow Rx for Regulation, Pittsburgh: Center for the Study & Improvement of Regulation, Carnegie Mellon University %D 2001 %T Regulating Transportation Emissions %A David Keith %A Alex Farrell %B S. Farrow Rx for Regulation, Pittsburgh: Center for the Study & Improvement of Regulation, Carnegie Mellon University %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/43.keith_.2001.regulatingtransport.s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2001 %T Sinks, Energy Crops, and Land Use: Coherent Climate Policy Demands an Integrated Analysis of Biomass %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %V 49 %P 1-10 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/36.keith_.2001.sinksenergycropsandlanduse.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Performance Today %D 2001 %T Who is Richard Feynman and why are they writing a play about him? %A David Keith %A Susan Poole %B Performance Today %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/60.keith_.2001.feynman.f.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Scientific American %D 2000 %T A Breakthrough in Climate Change Policy? %A David Keith %A Edward Parson %B Scientific American %P 78-79 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/25.keith_.2000.breakthroughclimatechange.x.pdf %0 Journal Article %J IEEE Technology and Society Magazine %D 2000 %T The Earth is Not Yet an Artifact %A David Keith %B IEEE Technology and Society Magazine %V 19 %P 25-28 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/28.keith_.2000.earthnotanartifiact.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Annual Review of Energy and the Environment %D 2000 %T Geoengineering the Climate: History and Prospect %A David Keith %B Annual Review of Energy and the Environment %V 25 %P 245-284 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/26.keith_.2000.geoengineeringhistoryandprospect.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J IRS2000: Current Problems in Atmospheric Radiation %D 2000 %T Intercomparison of atmospheric radiance measurements by two fourier transform spectrometers flown on the NASA ER-2 %A Haijun Hu %A John Dykema %A David Keith %A Larry Lapson %A James Anderson %A Robert Knuteson %A William Smith %B IRS2000: Current Problems in Atmospheric Radiation %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres %D 2000 %T Stratosphere-troposphere exchange: Inferences from the isotopic composition of water vapor %A David Keith %B Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres %V 105 %P 15167-15174 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/27.keith_.2000.strattrophisotopes.e.pdf %R 10.1029/2000JD900130 %0 Journal Article %J OCEANS 2000 MTS/IEEE Conference and Exhibition %D 2000 %T Towards true zero-emission vehicles in a single step: air pollution and greenhouse gas reductions through hydrogen fueled ships with carbon management %A J. J. Corbett %A D. W. Keith %A A. Farrell %B OCEANS 2000 MTS/IEEE Conference and Exhibition %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 1999 %T The effect of climate change on ozone depletion through changes in stratospheric water vapor %A Daniel Kirk-Davidoff %A Eric Hintsa %A James Anderson %A David Keith %B Nature %V 402 %P 399-401 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/21.kirk-davidoff.1999.ozonedepletionstratosphericwater.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J 10th conference on atmospheric radiation, Madison, WI %D 1999 %T Validation of Radiative Transfer for Atmospheric Temperature Sensing %A Haijun Hu %A L. Larrabee Strow %A David Keith %A James Anderson %B 10th conference on atmospheric radiation, Madison, WI %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/19.hu_.1999.validationofradiativetransfer.f.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 1998 %T Fossil fuels without CO2 emissions %A E. A. Parson %A David Keith %B Science %V 282 %P 1053-1054 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/17.parson.1998.fossilfuelswithoutco2.f.pdf %N 5391 %0 Journal Article %J S. J. Hassol and J. Katzenberger Elements of Change 1998, Aspen Colorado: Aspen Global Change Institute %D 1998 %T Geoengineering Climate %A David Keith %B S. J. Hassol and J. Katzenberger Elements of Change 1998, Aspen Colorado: Aspen Global Change Institute %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/16_keith_1998_geoengclimate_s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J S. H. Schneider Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, New York, NY: Oxford University Press %D 1996 %T Energetics %A David Keith %B S. H. Schneider Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, New York, NY: Oxford University Press %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/15.keith_.1996.energetics.s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 1996 %T When is it appropriate to combine expert judgments? %A David Keith %B Climatic Change %V 33 %P 139-143 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/14.keith_.1996.whentocombineexpertjudgments.f.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Tellus %D 1995 %T Meridional Energy Transport - Uncertainty in Zonal Means %A David Keith %B Tellus %V 47 %P 30-44 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/12.keith_.1995.meridionalenergytransport.e.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 1995 %T Subjective Judgments By Climate Experts %A M. Granger Morgan %A David Keith %B Environmental Science & Technology %V 29 %P A468-A476 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/13.morgan.1995.subjectivejudgmentsbyclimate_experts.s.pdf %N 10 %0 Journal Article %J Elements of Change 1994 %D 1994 %T Eliciting Expert Judgment about Uncertainty in Climate Prediction %A David Keith %B Elements of Change 1994 %P 164-165 %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Applied Physics B %D 1992 %T Atom Optics Using Microfabricated Structures %A C. R. Ekstrom %A David Keith %A D. E. Pritchard %B Applied Physics B %V 54 %P 369-374 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/08_ekstrom_etal_1992_atomoptics_s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Journal of the Optical Society of America A %D 1992 %T Numerical model of a multiple-grating interferometer %A Quentin Turchette %A David Pritchard %A David Keith %B Journal of the Optical Society of America A %V 9 %P 1601 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/10_quentin_etal_1992_multgratinginterf_s.pdf %N 9 %R 0740-3232/92/091601-06 %0 Journal Article %J Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union %D 1992 %T A Serious Look at Geoengineering %A David Keith %A Hadi Dowlatabadi %B Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union %V 73 %P 289-293 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/09_keith_1992_seriouslookatgeoeng_s.pdf %N 27 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Vacuum Science and Technology B %D 1991 %T Free-standing gratings and lenses for atom optics %A David Keith %A Robert Soave %A M. J. Rooks %B Journal of Vacuum Science and Technology B %V 9 %P 2846-2850 %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Thesis, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology %D 1991 %T An Interferometer for atoms %A David Keith %B Thesis, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/00.keith_.1991.aninterferometerforatomsthesis.x.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Physical Review Letters %D 1991 %T An Interferometer For Atoms %A David Keith %A Christopher Ekstrom %A Quentin Turchette %A David Pritchard %B Physical Review Letters %V 66 %P 2693-2696 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/07.keith_.1991.aninterferometerforatoms.s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J New Frontiers in Quantum Electrodynamics and Quantum Optics, A. O. Barut Ed, Plenum Press, New York %D 1990 %T Atom Optics %A David Keith %A David Pritchard %B New Frontiers in Quantum Electrodynamics and Quantum Optics, A. O. Barut Ed, Plenum Press, New York %P 467-475 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/05.keith_.1990.atom_.optics.f.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Physical Review Letters %D 1988 %T Diffraction of atoms by a transmission grating %A David Keith %A M. L. Schattenberg %A Henry Smith %A D. E. Pritchard %B Physical Review Letters %V 61 %P 1580 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/04_keith_etal_1988_diffraction_ofatoms_s.pdf %0 Journal Article %J Journal of the American Association of Variable Star Observers %D 1985 %T The application of visual observations to the study of a small-amplitude variable star: rho Cassiopeiae %A John Percy %A Virginia Fabro %A David Keith %B Journal of the American Association of Variable Star Observers %V 14 %P 1-7 %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Journal of the Optical Society of America B %D 1985 %T Controlled Switching of 10mm Radiation Using Semiconductor Etalons %A P. Corkum %A David Keith %B Journal of the Optical Society of America B %V 2 %P 1873-1879 %G eng %U /files/tkg/files/02_corkum_etal_1985_10mmradiation_s.pdf %N 12 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada %D 1984 %T The Quasi-Cepheid Nature of Rho-Cassiopeiae %A John Percy %A David Keith %B Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada %V 78 %P 206 %G eng